The conflict in Syria: the sides that started it all. War in Syria: Everything that is known at the moment
What is really happening in Syria. First, in the eastern suburbs of Damascus, the Assad regime is consolidating its power after months of fighting the rebels. "Fighting", as it once happened in Aleppo, is nothing more than a war crime: Russian and Syrian planes continuously strike at the civilian population and civilian infrastructure - both night and day. Nobody in the world will even give a hint about what is happening during these "battles". ISIS controls southern Damascus (an organization banned in Russia - ed.)... There is no doubt that they will become next target total destruction and murder.
Secondly, a huge flow of refugees from areas close to Damascus to northern Syria is already underway and will continue to grow in the near future. The Assad regime is spurring Sunni citizens to leave their places and move to the north of the country. Russian forces provide the possibility of movement of this stream.
Context
Russians won't stop halfway
Ar Rai Al Youm 12.04.2018Will Russia be able to shoot down american missiles in Syria?
The National Interest 04/12/2018Trump's tweet about Syria shook stock exchanges
Bloomberg 04/12/2018Where is our "Thank you America"?
InoTVIT 04/12/2018 Thirdly, in fact, the entire north of Syria has become a Turkish security zone, in which the army of this country is stationed. Erdogan's Turkey becomes the patron state of Islamic rebel movements and the Sunni population who fled other parts of the country. It seems that only Ankara's fears of Moscow's reaction prevent the Turks from taking control of Aleppo, much of which is controlled by Russian forces.Fourth, these days new borders of Syria are being formed: the Turks are in the north of the country (except for one Kurdish enclave), next to large enclave Idlib, which is controlled by Islamic rebels receiving Turkish patronage. This is approximately 15% of the Syrian territory. In northeastern Syria, the Kurds, who are supported by the United States, are in power. This is almost 30% of the country's territory. There is a lot of oil and gas in the area. Hezbollah has taken control of the mountainous regions of western Syria. In the Golan Heights, Israel retains its interests. Formally, Assad controls 50% of the territory of Syria. However, he is not the real master. They are Russia and Iran.
Fifth, former US President Barack Obama ignored the genocide in Syria and thereby opened the country's gates for Russia. Original sin lies with him. Is Trump echoing his predecessor's policies? On the one hand, he wants to run away from responsibility and abandon the Kurds, who did the "dirty work" for the United States to defeat ISIS. On the other hand, it is difficult for him to ignore the use of chemical weapons and confine ourselves to minor actions. What will he decide? We don't know yet.
InoSMI materials contain assessments exclusively of foreign mass media and do not reflect the position of the InoSMI editorial board.
Image copyright Getty Images Image caption In Syria, fighters of Russian private military companies are diplomatically called consultants
For several days now, reports have been coming from Syria about the possible defeat of a detachment of Russians from the so-called private military company (PMC) Wagner. At the same time, the Kremlin does not confirm this information, and when asked by a journalist whether Russia plans to declare mourning, they replied that they did not understand in connection with what to declare it.
The Russian service of the BBC tried to figure out whether the Russians were really killed in Syria after the American strike on February 7, for whom they worked and what they were doing in the zone of the American military presence.
What happened on February 7?
According to the most widespread version, on February 7, 2018, a detachment, which could include Russians, tried to occupy an area in the province of Deir ez-Zor near the Euphrates. The area is controlled by the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), a US-backed rebel group.
The head of the US Air Force Central Command, Lieutenant General Jeffrey Harrigian, gave a press conference at the Pentagon on February 13, during which he detailed the American version of what happened that day.
According to the general, on the evening of February 7, the international coalition led by the United States defended itself, and American military advisers helped the Syrian rebels fight off "an unprovoked and coordinated attack on their positions over the Euphrates River."
The general said that before the attack, the enemy carried out artillery preparation, which involved tanks, mortars, rocket and cannon artillery. Under cover of this shelling, forces about a battalion in size moved into the position.
At the time, Harrigian said, aircraft were in the air, including MQ-9 unmanned aerial vehicles and F-22 fighters, which performed reconnaissance and patrol functions.
According to the general, the Americans immediately contacted representatives of the Russian command in Syria and told them about the attack. The details of the negotiations, as well as their results and the reaction of the Russian military, he did not disclose, noting only that operational negotiations with Russian group conducted constantly.
After this conversation, the general continued, the coalition struck on the attackers, which involved F-15E fighters, MQ-9 drones, B-52 strategic bombers, AC-130 heavy attack aircraft and AH-64 Apache attack helicopters.
The general called the air strikes pinpoint, and said that as a result, several artillery systems and tanks were destroyed. After that, Jeffrey Harrigian said, the attackers retreated. He said that he did not know who was in the attacking group and whether there were Russian citizens there.
In turn, various Russian and foreign publications claim that the Russians were there and that from 11 to several hundred died.
How is Russia reacting?
The Kremlin refuses to comment on this incident - formally, the fighters of private military companies are not under the control of the Russian authorities, including the Russian Ministry of Defense. The latter, however, stated that 25 Syrians were injured as a result of the raid, but no Russians were injured.
According to the Russian Ministry of Defense, no one attacked the US-backed rebels: the Syrian militias covered by the American strike allegedly carried out an operation against the "sleeping cell" of the Islamic State extremist group, whose activities are prohibited in Russia and other countries.
At the same time, the department emphasized that the militias, who were hit by the coalition, did not coordinate their operation with the command of the Russian task force.
"I did not understand the essence, in connection with what the mourning should be declared?" - The press secretary of the President of Russia Dmitry Peskov answered in turn to reporters when asked if the Russian authorities plan to honor the memory of the Russians allegedly killed in Syria.
Did the Russians really die?
Conflict Intelligence Team (CIT) Research Group Unveils Seven Alleged Russian Fighters " PMC Wagner"killed, according to her, during the February 7 airstrike.
According to the data found on the network, these are Alexey Ladygin from Ryazan, Stanislav Matveev and Igor Kosoturov from Asbest Sverdlovsk region, Ruslan Gavrilov from the village of Kedrovoe, Sverdlovsk region, Vladimir Loginov from Kaliningrad, Alexey Shikhov from Nizhny Novgorod, Vladimir with the callsign "Apostol" (surname unknown) and Kirill Ananiev from Moscow.
The latter until 2009 was a member of the National Bolshevik Party, whose activities were banned in Russia by the court. His death in Syria Russian service BBC confirmed the co-chairman of the unregistered party "Other Russia" Alexander Averin.
The deaths of Vladimir Loginov and Igor Kosoturov were confirmed to the BBC Russian service by their close relatives. The death of Stanislav Matveyev was confirmed to RBC by his cousin Igor Patsko. The dates of the deaths of the Russians coincide with the date of the American strike.
The relatives of the rest of the Russians mentioned by CIT have not yet confirmed their death.
What were they doing there?
The head of the US Air Force Central Command Jeffrey Harrigan, speaking in Qatar, said that the attack on the positions of the Syrian Democratic Army and the US coalition on the evening of February 7 was initiated by "unknown hostile forces", and the return fire was dictated by the tasks of self-defense.
According to the Kommersant newspaper, the cause of the incident was an attempt by large businessmen who support Bashar al-Assad's regime to seize the oil and gas fields of Kurds - allies of the United States. To this end, pro-government tribal formations went on the offensive, and the so-called ISIS Hunters, reinforced by PMC Wagner fighters, marched in the second echelon. Both those and others were hit, an unnamed source told the publication.
The source of Moskovsky Komsomolets in Syria also claims that the Syrians allegedly decided, together with Russian mercenaries, to seize the plant from the Kurds in the area of the American presence: “There were three companies of private traders and a Syrian militia. The first line of Kurds and Americans was demolished quite quickly, even too easily. Then aviation, drones and turntables arrived, and they were threshed for four hours. "
The publication also cites another version: the allegedly shot column counterattacked the fighters of the Islamic State extremist organization, whose activities are prohibited in Russia and many other countries. They retreated towards the CONOCO refinery, where a secret US base could be located.
“I don’t understand what they were counting on,” said the source of Moskovsky Komsomolets. “With only Kalash they attacked the Americans. But it was a purely commercial topic. It has nothing to do with the war.”
What is the meaning of PMCs?
"This [private military companies] is a tool for realizing national interests without the direct participation of the state," said Vladimir Putin in 2012, when he was offered to legalize PMCs. The Prime Minister then promised to think about this issue and, it seems, is still thinking.
PMC Wagner is an informal military organization that allegedly took part in hostilities in Donbass (on the side of the self-proclaimed republics) and in Syria (on the side of the Assad government). In the fall of 2015, the online newspaper Fontanka first spoke about the activities of this PMC.
According to the publication, a businessman Yevgeny Prigozhin may be behind the PMC. Companies close to him win contracts to service the Russian army. Presumably associated with Prigozhin, the company "Euro Polis" allegedly entered into an agreement with the regime of Bashar al-Assad, according to which it receives a quarter of the oil in the territory reclaimed from IS.
Image copyright AFP Image caption The civil war in Syria has continued since the spring of 2011In 2017, the Minister of Oil and mineral resources Syria, Ali Ghanem confirmed planned cooperation with Russia in the oil and gas sector, as well as a meeting with Russian oil companies operating in Syria.
Ghanem estimated the daily production in the territory controlled by the Syrian government at 8,000 barrels of oil and 9 million cubic meters of gas. For comparison: Russia annually produces over 10 million barrels of oil and over 600 billion cubic meters of gas.
How are PMCs related to the Russian state?
According to "Fontanka" and CIT, the employees of "PMC Wagner" have no relation to any official power structure of Russia, however, they received military orders and medals for their military work.
Former Wagner PMC fighter Nikolai S. told the Investigation Management Center that there is nothing private about this unit. "PMCs do not disembark from large landing ships along with equipment. This is a real army. The group strictly fulfills the tasks set by the Russian command. And journalists came up with the stupid name of the PMC. You might think we could be hired to guard a dacha or a yacht," the source said.
According to the Security Service of Ukraine, 95% of the Wagner PMC members who fought on the territory of this country are Russian citizens. "As a rule, this former special forces, GRUs, paratroopers, "- said the head of the SBU Vasily Gritsak.
Image copyright MIKHAIL METZEL / TASS Image caption Evgeny PrigozhinIn 2016, the leaders of PMC Wagner allegedly attended a reception with President Vladimir Putin - a photo from the meeting. In the photo next to Putin is the alleged founder of this structure - Dmitry Valerievich Utkin (call sign Wagner), a reserve lieutenant colonel who previously served as commander of the 700th separate detachment special forces in the 2nd brigade special purpose in the Pskov region.
Why is everyone silent about PMCs?
Moscow denies that employees of Russian private military companies are fighting in Syria. According to the official data of the Ministry of Defense, the combat losses of Russia in the republic for the entire period of the campaign amounted to about 40 people. According to Reuters estimates, 131 Russian mercenaries were killed in Syria in 2017 alone (the agency notes that this figure does not take into account the military personnel).
In the absence of a law regulating the activities of PMCs, the only legal norm relating to the participation of Russian volunteers in hostilities abroad is Article 359 of the Russian Criminal Code - "Mercenary". For two leaders " Slavic Corps"(The first incarnation of PMC Wagner) Vadim Gusev and Yevgeny Sidorov's trip to Syria ended with criminal cases and sentences with real terms.
At the end of 2014, the State Duma rejected the draft law "On private military security companies," introduced through the Duma Defense Committee by deputies Gorovtsov, Shein, Nosovko. However, on February 14, the Head of the State Duma Defense Committee, Vladimir Shamanov, announced a new bill on PMCs. According to him, the document is aimed at obtaining a response to the government.
It would be naive to believe that the situation in the Middle East today is controlled by some global behind-the-scenes force that has unleashed the conflict in Syria, trying to achieve some of its secret interests. This is not true. In the Middle East, relations between themselves are primarily clarified by regional actors.
So, in the Syrian conflict, three largest Middle Eastern players were involved at once. These are Saudi Arabia, Iran and Turkey. All other forces are secondary. However, they do not play the same game - each plays its own.
In recent years, Saudi Arabia has been guided by a single directive - to become the undisputed leader of the entire Arab world. And in general, the country really managed to achieve dominance in the Middle East in many ways, despite all the efforts of its rivals to prevent this from happening.
Until 2011, Egypt was the main contender for leadership in the region, but the events of the Arab Spring did not leave the country in a super heavy economic situation, no chance.
On this wave, Qatar decided to try its luck (in alliance with Turkey), which achieved particular success in 2011-2012. In 2012, Muhammad Morsi, who represented the Al-Ikhwan al-Muslimun * movement, which was closely associated at that time with Qatar and Turkey, became President of Egypt. Before Saudi Arabia, a very real threat of the dual Qatar-Turkish hegemony in the region began to emerge.
However, Saudi Arabia Qatar nevertheless outplayed, creating a coalition of all the countries of the Persian Gulf (except, of course, Qatar and to some extent conducting a fairly independent policy of Oman), which jointly took this very small but rich country, loudly declared itself during Arab Spring, to the background.
We must pay tribute to the skills of the Saudi diplomats: the Egyptian military, Israel, the financial sharks of Dubai, the Egyptian leftists-Trotskyists, and the realist politicians of the United States, and even Russia then acted as a united anti-Khwanki-anti-Qatari front. In 2013, Mursi was overthrown by this extremely broad coalition, and the Muslim Brotherhood was defeated.
This was the end of the Qatari intrigue in the Middle East. But this episode is important for another reason: Saudi Arabia then demonstrated to the whole world its ability to use external forces, among which, when it took the Arabs, were the United States, and in certain episodes Russia.
The current President of Egypt, Al-Sisi, by the way, receives money from Saudi Arabia (as, incidentally, before that Mursi received money from Qatar), and as they say, who pays the money, he calls the tune. Of course, there can be no question of any independent policy of Egypt now.
The main competitors of Saudi Arabia in the Middle East today are Iran and Turkey, and the main axis of confrontation directly in Syria is undoubtedly the Saudi-Iranian axis, which is further complicated by Turkish intervention.
Iran is usually said to support Damascus simply because it supports the Shiites in the fight against the Sunnis. Everything, of course, is much more complicated. For example, it would be a stretch to call the Yemeni Zeidis Shiites, while the Alawites are generally representatives of a religion that, strictly speaking, cannot be considered Islam (I am afraid that only representatives of the dedicated Alawite religious elite will agree with me in their hearts, ukkal but not the uninitiated ordinary Alawite mass, Juhkhal). And in the Shiite educational institutions More recently, it was taught that a Shiite who shook hands with an Alawite must undergo a certain ritual of purification before performing a prayer. I myself was a witness to this.
But the Iranians have shown miracles of wisdom in diplomacy, having managed to forget the old ritual contradictions and have created a very broad coalition of currents that have not been considered Shi'ism for a very long time and which, due to external threats, are ready to join virtually anyone, forgetting the old differences.
By creating an "anti-Wahhabist" coalition, Iran pursued specific goal: to strengthen the position in the Arab world and create a counterbalance to Saudi Arabia.
Allies were needed, which Iran found primarily among the colossal Shiite community of Iraq, the Shiite majority of the population of Bahrain, in the eastern part of Saudi Arabia itself, Lebanon - a country of minorities, where no group at all is the majority, the Houthis of Yemen and, of course, the Shiites. Alawites and non-Sunnis in general in Syria, who are in their majority in the current situation on the side of Assad.
In particular, the abnormally strong Lebanese Hezbollah is on the side of Iran, which at one time withstood a direct confrontation with the militarily powerful power, Israel, which was once capable of crushing several Arab states that were many times larger than it in six days. Hezbollah is one of the few forces in the region that support the Assad regime and the Syrian Shiites sincerely, out of a sense of duty to their loyal allies. Largely because they found themselves in an extremely difficult situation, but, of course, also for the struggle for self-preservation, realizing that the fall of the Assad regime could catastrophically undermine the position of the Shiite community in Lebanon.
In general, many local residents, not without some reason, consider Lebanon and Syria to be one country. In the event of the fall of Bashar al-Assad's regime in Lebanon, the Sunnis would definitely be strengthened, which is absolutely unacceptable for Hezbollah, so the decision to support the Syrian president was the only possible one for this most powerful fighting force in Lebanon.
But nevertheless, it is necessary to assess Iran's strength sensibly: having scattered groups of non-Sunni minorities as allies, it is unrealistic to achieve total domination in the Middle East today. However, it is quite possible to create a tangible counterbalance to the regional dominance of Saudi Arabia, which is already a significant success.
The main interests of Turkey in Syria are the Kurds, and for this reason its gross interference in the affairs of its neighbor was inevitable. At the same time, the seemingly completely illogical and barbaric first Turkish intervention in Syria on the side of Assad's opponents was primarily associated with an attempt to strengthen its position as a regional leader, which Turkey claims on a par with Saudi Arabia and Iran.
It is important that there was no extreme tension between Turkey and the Assad regime before the Arab Spring, but in 2012 the Turks carried out a fundamentally wrong political analysis believing, like the whole world, with the exception of some experts, that the fall of the Assad regime is a matter of literally a few days or a maximum of weeks. Well, ignorance of the specifics of the Syrian political culture affected.
It seemed to everyone that if several districts of the capital were occupied by the rebels, then the regime would inevitably come to an end. The Turks prepared to share the booty and intervened, hoping to snatch something from the remnants of Syria, ahead of Saudi Arabia. And the regime did not fall.
And, of course, Turkish politicians could not help but take advantage of the chance to advertise themselves by supporting the Turks living on the northern border of the country. but important task as in 2012, now - wait for the collapse of Syria and snatch your piece of the pie. The Turks cannot allow Syria to be divided between Saudi Arabia and Iran. Although now the task of preventing the unification of the Kurdish lands in a single belt has almost come to the fore, which would have brought Turkey out of the "Syrian game", and, moreover, raised the question of creating a Kurdish state, which could not but stimulate so is already an active movement for the independence of the Kurds in Turkey itself. For the sake of preventing the unification of the two Kurdish enclaves of Syria into one, the Turks are quite ready to enter into confrontation with IS * and occupy territories controlled by IS - the main thing is that the Kurds do not have time to occupy them.
Quite often in the Middle East there are events that, if you think about it, do not correspond to the interests of Russia, the United States or Europe, but we are used to looking at the East precisely through the prism of the interests of the West, not paying attention to the interests of macro players in the region itself. The problem is that many of the events, seemingly inexplicable for us, often fully correspond to the interests of the Middle Eastern powers.
Russia operates in Syria at the invitation of Assad. The Americans invited themselves. And more often than not, it turns out that, with the help of the United States, local actors who divide the spheres of influence are trying to achieve their own tasks.
The Americans probably began to guess about this, but if so, now they can no longer just take and leave Syria. This would mean a complete loss of face. Therefore, they are forced to help the Middle East players divide Syria among themselves, hiding behind their own national interests, which the United States does not, of course, have in Syria.
Now, for example, they play well with the interests of the Syrian Kurds, among whom, by the way, the party of an openly leftist orientation dominates, as a result of which the American special forces often have to fight in overalls with practically communist symbols ...
There is a so-called "proxy war" between different players. Consider (in alphabetical order) main:
Israel. For the Israelis, virtually all sides of this war (except Russia, the United States, and the Kurds) are adversaries. Oddly enough, the obvious idea “it’s better to have a secular Assad at your borders than the Islamic State and Al-Qaeda” is not very popular in Israel. The Israelis are well aware of the difficult defensive war against the father of the current Syrian president, Hafez Assad, and are aware of the claims of official Damascus to the Golan Heights. But the greatest tension in Israel is still caused by the participation in the conflict of the Lebanese Shiite group Hezbollah, which is committing terrorist attacks on Israeli territory. Anything else other than Hezbollah is of little concern to Israelis.
From the first day of Russia's participation in the Syrian war, the Russian-Israeli focal point... Israel adheres to friendly neutrality with respect to Russia (bilateral relations have reached a new level, partly due to the obvious hostility between Benjamin Netanyahu and the Barack Obama administration - the Israeli prime minister even defiantly canceled his visits to Washington and flew to Moscow for talks). Israel never puts forward claims to the Russian side in connection with the fact that the aircraft of the Russian Aerospace Forces, when turning, sometimes touch the Israeli airspace.
The active actions of the Israelis are limited to three points:
- Application air strikes on military depots in Syria in cases where the weapons on them, according to Israel, are intended for Hezbollah. Despite the fact that Hezbollah is a tactical ally of Bashar al-Assad in the war against " Islamic State"And al-Qaeda, during Israeli airstrikes, all Russian air defense systems" fall asleep "at once and do not in the least interfere with the Israeli Air Force to do their job. Official Moscow, as a rule, "turns a blind eye" to such incidents, state Russian media keep silent.
- The principled position of Israel - as a state that is constantly under the threat of destruction - if at least one stray shell from Syria flies into its territory, the Israeli army immediately responds without spending a minute to find out who is to blame. Very unpleasant situations are repeated: militants of terrorist groups fire at the positions of the Syrian troops, something flies over the Syrian-Israeli border, after which it is the Syrian army that receives a "response" from Israel. Asking the Israelis to "get into position" and not doing so again is absolutely useless. You can understand them.
- Different parties to the conflict are dragging their wounded in order to sneak them into Israeli territory. The Israelis, they say, fundamentally treat everyone indiscriminately and then deport them back. In fact, of course, Israeli intelligence is receiving important information from these wounded. Was interesting case When the Israeli Druze somehow learned that another "foundling" was an Islamic State militant, they stopped an ambulance and tore him apart (IS is massively destroying the Druze in Syria).
Iran. For Shiite Iran, the territory of Syria has become the arena of a battle against the main geopolitical enemy - Sunni Saudi Arabia, as well as against Sunni Qatar. The Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps is targeting Saudi and Qatari groups in Syria. In addition, at the request of Iran, the Lebanese Shiite terrorist organization Hezbollah acted on its side in Syria.
Qatar... One of the richest countries on the planet (perhaps the richest per capita). The presence of enormous wealth spurs on the ambitions of the ruling Qatari monarchy. Qatar hopes to build a huge world Caliphate and stand at the head of it. To this end, the Qatari monarchy is pumping huge amounts of money and material resources into Islamic terrorists around the world. By the way, Qatar is doing a lot of "work" in the Russian Caucasus as well. What does it look like? It reminds the USSR of the 1920s, which was a very extremist state, in the sense that it counted on exporting the revolution to the whole world through the Comintern and even building one world socialist state with its capital in Moscow. Specifically in Syria, the Qatari monarchy, do not be fools, diversified their "investments", supplying money and everything necessary at once to two large groups: "Islamic State" and "Ahrar al-Sham". Moreover, Qatar had enough money to directly or indirectly buy Western politicians so that they recognize Ahrar al-Sham as the “moderate Syrian democratic opposition” (although all these “oppositionists” are the most notorious thugs). Somewhere simple bribery comes into play, in the case of France, multibillion-dollar contracts. Yes, yes, France, which was shaken by the terrorist attacks organized by the Islamic State, is actively friends with those who organized the Islamic State itself. Money doesn't smell. Money does not smell even in the case of Belarus, which, without hiding and without formally violating any international norms, sells old Soviet weapons to Qatar, which then ends up in the hands of IS and Ahrar al-Sham.
- A bit of conspiracy. After Russia began to destroy terrorists in Syria, making no distinction among them between "good" and "bad", from Qatar began downright hysterical exclamations. Not surprising - Russian aviation bombs those into whom Qatar has hammered enormous efforts and money. After that, our "Airbus" exploded over Sinai. And after this terrorist attack ... during a falconry in Iraq (with which Russia has established cooperation), several representatives of the Qatari royal family disappear. Moreover, the unknown kidnappers immediately release all the servants and do not put forward any demands. Soon after this mysterious incident ... the Emir of Qatar flies to Moscow, where he suddenly begins to spread compliments towards Russia. And during the visit, Putin personally gives him ... a falcon.
Kurds. First, the desperate struggle for their own survival (from the point of view of radical Islamists, the Kurds have no right to life) - it is no coincidence that the Kurdish militia shows the highest moral and volitional qualities on the battlefield. Secondly, the desire for independence - right up to the creation of an independent state of Kurdistan, uniting the Kurds living in Syria, Turkey and Iraq. True, in fact, the relations between the Kurds from these countries are by no means always allied.
The Kurds as a force opposed to the "Islamic State" are mostly supported by the United States, and to a lesser extent - by Russia. The Kurds, having common enemies with Bashar al-Assad, adhere to friendly neutrality towards him (he never touched them, the Kurds lived autonomously in united Syria). However, the United States is pushing the Kurds against official Damascus as much as possible. Therefore, at the moment when the Kurds nevertheless, at the instigation of the Americans, turned their weapons against Bashar al-Assad, Russia did not interfere with the invasion of the Turkish army into the northern regions of Syria, where the Kurds live. Officially, Turkey launched an operation allegedly against the "Islamic State", in fact main goal the Turks was to hit the Syrian Kurds and prevent them from uniting with the Turkish Kurds, which would threaten Turkey with the loss of the south of the country. In parallel, in the south of his own state, President Recep Erdogan is waging a merciless war against his own civilians of Kursk nationality with the full connivance of the world community.
Saudi Arabia. The Saudis are pursuing the same goals as the Qataris - the world Caliphate (but led by Riyadh, not Doha, of course). This is their axial paradigm, the promotion of radical Sunni Islam is an integral part of Saudi ideology. Did you think wars over religion and ideology disappeared somewhere? Nothing of the kind, it's just that they are now being carried out with the help of modern weapons.
By the way, like Qatar, the Saudi monarchy invests a lot of money in our Caucasus (as well as Tatarstan and Bashkiria - with the connivance local authorities). In Syria, Saudi Arabia bets, accordingly, not on the rival Islamic State, but on a number of radical groups, the largest of which is Jebhat al-Nusra (the Syrian branch of al-Qaeda, aka Jebhat Fatah al-Sham, she is "Tahrir al-Sham", she is "Deish al-Fatah" (the last of these is the tactical association of the Saudi "al-Nusra" with the Qatari "Ahrar al-Sham")). Moreover, with bribery and threats, Saudi Arabia forces western countries consider all these terrorist groups "moderate opposition". If everything is clear with bribery, then the threats of such a plan are “we will withdraw our money from your economy”. One of the richest states on the planet, Saudi Arabia holds $ 1 trillion in the US economy, which forces even Americans to reckon with the interests of the Saudi monarchy, often to the detriment of their own interests and the interests of Western civilization itself.
There is another reason for Saudi Arabia's involvement in this war. Cynical - well, just goose bumps. The war in Syria on the part of the Saudis is "supervised" by Muhammad ibn Salman Al Saudi, the crown prince and one of the pretenders to the Saudi throne. If he can prove that he is a "real man" by overthrowing Assad, then he will receive the crown. If not, then no. For the sake of the crown, he is ready to destroy as many hundreds of thousands of peaceful Syrians as he wants.
Russia. He fights on the side of the government forces of Bashar al-Assad for the following reasons:
1. Central Asian republics are located in the "soft underbelly" of the Russian Federation the former USSR characterized by weak statehood (also aggravated by the physical departure of the old Soviet autocrats), social disorder and the presence of an extremely breeding ground for radical Islam. The news is alarming: already now what we call "international terrorism" is opening more and more branches in Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan (I will not undertake to judge Turkmenistan without verified information). The potential start of the "Central Asian Spring" (following the example of the "Arab Spring") threatens Russia with a national catastrophe: then the region to the south of our country turns into one huge base of Islamic terrorists (following the example of Libya), millions of refugees from Central Asia wave over the territory of the Russian Federation. Among them, of course, there will be many thousands of Islamic militants who will drown our country in a sea of blood. It is not possible to separate from the Central Asian republics with a high wall of several thousand kilometers and place a border guard on it every five meters. Further it gets worse: the described development of events will provoke an explosive radicalization of the Muslim population in such Russian regions as Tatarstan and Bashkortostan. Despite the fact that the latent radicalization of the Tatars and Bashkirs has been going on for a long time already: with the connivance of local Russian authorities Saudi, Qatari and Turkish emissaries who legally come to Russia under the guise of religious preachers carry out extensive work in this field (Rais Suleimanov, one of the leading experts on Wahhabism, is sounding the alarm, for which the Tatarstan authorities are in the best Russian traditions- tried to plant him as a "slanderer"). One way or another, on the verge of a non-illusory catastrophe - the Russian Federation seeks to defeat the forces of "international terrorism" in Syria, so that the Syrian land does not become, like the Libyan one, one big support base for Islamic militants. Otherwise, the flames of jihad will very quickly spread to Central Asia, and then - to Russia.
2. In Syria, on the side of the Islamic State, the Syrian branches of al-Qaeda (Jabhat al-Nusra, Jabhat Fatah al-Sham, Jaysh al-Fatah) and other Islamic terrorist organizations, thousands of citizens from countries are fighting CIS (including immigrants from Muslim regions of Russia). This entire contingent in Syria is not forever - their task is to gain real combat experience and return to kindle a "holy war" already at home (standard and time-tested practice). Moreover, when there was a visa-free regime between Russia and Turkey, it was de facto also valid for terrorists. The task of the Russian Federation is to force all these militants to remain in Syria in the form of charred corpses and demoralized deserters. At the same time, using their example, to discourage others from the idea of going to Syria to fight for terrorists.
3. Without the help of the Russian army, Bashar al-Assad will be completely defeated, and all his Alawite relatives will simply be massacred by militants in the truest sense of the word (as the Yezidis, Shiites, Christians and other ethno-confessional groups of the Syrian population are already massacred). Therefore, Assad had no choice but to agree to the indefinite deployment of the Russian military base at the Khmeimim airfield. We did not have such a base on the territory of Syria even during the Soviet era (a small logistical support point in the port of Tartus cannot be called a base).
5. The war in Syria for Russia costs the same money that is comparable to the cost of military exercises, which in any case had to be carried out. At the same time: at a slightly higher cost, the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation receive much more experience and the ability to "test" new weapons in real combat conditions (and not their imitation). It is interesting that in Syria there is a very rapid rotation of the personnel of the Russian army - the military department seeks to "drive" through Syrian conflict as many officers as possible, so that they all receive the appropriate experience.
6. Sounds more like a curiosity, but nonetheless. The warehouses of the Russian army are littered with expiring bombs. It is much cheaper to dump them on the heads of terrorists than to dispose of them.
USA and its European NATO satellites. Indeed, they are fighting against IS, but not in Syria, but in Iraq. Nominally, they participate in the “anti-terrorist coalition” on Syrian territory, de facto they carry out an “order” against Assad.
1. Saudi Arabia and Qatar certainly need to overthrow the secular regime of Bashar al-Assad and divide Syria between their Islamist militants. In this case, the United States of America fulfills its allied obligations in relation to the two richest monarchies in the world - Saudi and Qatari - in exchange for colossal investments in its economy. In addition, Saudi Arabia holds $ 1 trillion in the US economy, which has a tangible impact on American foreign policy. As a result, the United States instructs and supplies thousands of tons of military supplies to the following groups:
Jaysh al-Islam. De facto, these are extremely fanatical pro-Saudi Wahhabis, but according to the US and American satellites, this is a "moderate democratic opposition" that can be an adequate replacement for Bashar al-Assad. The Russian resolution recognizing Jaysh al-Islam as a terrorist organization has been blocked at the UN by the United States and other Western states.
"Nuriddin az-Zinki". The group "became famous" for cutting off a child's head and using handicraft chemical weapons, including against civilians.
"Ahrar ash-Sham". Qatari thugs (in the truest sense of the word). The Russian resolution recognizing Ahrar al-Sham as a terrorist organization has been blocked at the UN by the United States and other Western states.
Drum roll ... Al Qaeda. To the greatest extent, the United States is helping both on the military and on the diplomatic fronts of exactly the same Saudi Al-Qaeda, which itself arranged 9/11. First, American deliveries are made to the allegedly "moderate democratic opposition" organization Jaysh al-Fatah. At the same time, Jaysh al-Fatah is nothing more than a tactical alliance of Ahrar al-Sham and the Syrian branch of al-Qaeda called Jabhat al-Nusra. Secondly, the aid goes to the Jabhat Fatah al-Sham organization. Jabhat Fatah al-Sham is simply a part of Jabhat al-Nusra, which changed its name so as not to formally be on the Western list of terrorist organizations. Thirdly, long time The United States armed the so-called "Free Syrian Army" ( common name for the mass of small groups operating under the wing of al-Qaeda, but officially positioning themselves as "moderate democrats"). True, now the "Free Syrian Army" has completely disappeared into the "Jabhat al-Nusra".
In addition, on September 17, 2016, the US Air Force and its satellites launched an airstrike against Bashar al-Assad's forces near Deir ez-Zor, leaving a gap in the Syrian defenses for an Islamic State advance. But literally on the eve of this event, Lavrov and Kerry just signed an agreement according to which the "Western coalition" will not hit Assad's army.
2. The American establishment has a very big number pro-Saudi and prokatarsky lobbyists who work off "investments" in their personal pockets. Already it comes to unprecedented cases: for the first time in history, the United States vetoed a resolution condemning the shelling of the embassy - we are talking about the Russian mission in Damascus, fired by terrorists.
3. Since the time of Condoleezza Rice, the US leadership has left many honest idios ... ideologists who really believe in the possibility of forced democratization of the Middle East. Quite sincerely, these people believe that it is enough to simply overthrow the local dictator for democracy to be immediately established in a given country. Being hostages of their own ideology, they cannot realize that each state goes through its own stages of development, and democracy simply does not work at the stage of a multi-ethnic, multi-confessional Eastern clan society. Even the most disgusting dictator copes much better with the functions of an arbiter in these extremely finely arranged systems of internal relations, protecting the country from "war of all against all." Iraq and Libya are eloquent examples of this. By the way, among all the Middle Eastern dictators, Bashar al-Assad is just the most herbivorous. Quite an intelligent ophthalmologist, in which the people could lead a completely European way of life. Balance of power between all ethnic and confessional groups. No one touched the Shiites, or numerous Christians, or any other minorities with a finger. In Syria, girls, otherwise on their own, not only did they not wear headscarves, but they could even go to the beach in a swimsuit quite calmly - they did not throw stones at them for this. Young people of both sexes calmly went to discos in nightclubs, there was no ban on alcohol. If we should start democratization with someone, it’s just with the main US ally - Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia is a brutal Sharia dictatorship in which a woman is not allowed to go out into the streets without being accompanied by her brother, father or husband. Where women are tried and sentenced to cruel corporal punishment for being raped. Where gays are publicly beheaded. Where bloggers are sentenced to be hanged and even crucified. Where firefighters recently threw schoolgirls back into the fire - because they ran out of a burning school in inappropriate clothes. In the emirate of Qatar, by the way, manners are not much better.
Where there is war, there are losses. American instructors training terrorists fall under Russian airstrikes. So far, information has been announced about four dead. At the same time, Russian aircraft are being bombarded from the ground by American weapons (including the latest American anti-tank missile systems TOW, which in their new modification can effectively fight helicopters). On September 24, a meeting was held in Riyadh, at which the American side, in the course of consultations with the Gulf countries, pledged to hand over 30 portable anti-aircraft missile systems... Saudi Arabia demanded more, but the American CIA came out against it - it remembers well how in Afghanistan it had to buy Stingers from the Taliban for huge sums of money, which the CIA gave them to fight against Soviet aviation.
The most egregious case occurred on August 1, 2016, when the Jaysh al-Fatah militants (remember: this is the American-armed alliance of Jabhat al-Nusra (al-Qaeda) and Ahrar al-Sham) shot down a Russian Mi-8 transport helicopter with negotiators on board.
Turkey. We have already touched upon the Kurdish issue above, now it is the main one. In the recent past, Turkey supplied weapons and ammunition to the "Islamic State" (the so-called "humanitarian convoys"), sent its army officers and still provides the militants with their resorts for treatment and recreation - all this is the secret of the Punchinelles. And it's no secret that the overwhelming majority of volunteers end up in IS through Turkey. And the head of the Turkish intelligence service (MIT) Hakan Fidan generally openly stated that a permanent representation of the Islamic State should be opened in Ankara. However, this does not prevent Turkey from being part of the "anti-terrorist coalition" led by the United States for cover purposes (or, rather, from "maintaining decency") (which, you will laugh, also includes Qatar and Saudi Arabia).
Why does Turkey need an Islamic State? Three main reasons. The first reason. The current President of Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, is guided by an ideology called "We are the new Ottomans." He is seriously dreaming of restoration Ottoman Empire, thinks of himself as a Sultan - the new Suleiman the Magnificent, who will collect the long-lost lands. For Recep Erdogan, the Islamic State, as well as the militant groups of the Turkomans, is a tool with which he intended to annex northern Syria. I must say that he almost succeeded, but the intervention of Russia confused all the cards for the newly-minted sultan.
The second reason. Erdogan's family had a personal business of reselling oil from the Islamic State. IS sent thousands of fuel trucks towards Turkey (the columns, judging by the videos, stretched for kilometers - it was a kind of "moving oil pipeline"). Erdogan's family bought oil from the Islamic State at a bargain price, and sold it for much more. It was at the very moment when the Russian aviation began to iron the columns of fuel trucks, Erdogan "freaked out" to such an extent that he ordered our bomber to be shot down. Moreover, stating that this and other Russian aircraft and aircrafts, violated Turkish airspace, Recep Erdogan was not even too cunning - after all, from his point of view, the north of Syria has already become part of Turkey. By the way, it was the Turkoman militants who finished off our pilots from the ground, whose "tutelage" was the rationale for Turkey's annexation of the northern part of Syria, where the Turkomans live.
The conflict in Syria has been going on for more than four years and is accompanied by mass casualties. Events constantly fall into the spotlight of the world's media. A huge number of parties are involved in the war. Many countries are involved in the crisis.
Conflict in Syria: How It All Started?
The war in the Middle East is still going on. Around the time, the conflict in Syria began. The reasons are different for each of the current parties. But it all started with anti-government protests. The Baath Party has ruled Syria for over 70 years. Last years the president is Bashar al-Assad. Encouraged in other countries, the opposition begins to radically criticize the government and urges its supporters to go out. In the spring, the performances escalated sharply. There are violent clashes between protesters and the police and the army. There are constant reports of the dead. A number of northern provinces are practically not controlled by the government. Bashar al-Assad says he is ready to seek a compromise and dissolves the cabinet. But it was already too late.
Important role played social networks... Through Facebook and Twitter, the opposition coordinated their actions and called people to actions of disobedience. By the summer, the conflict in Syria is gaining momentum. Opponents of the government create armed formations, the West supports them and threatens Assad with sanctions if force is used.
Syria: a history of conflict
Clashes take on the character of full-scale hostilities. The rebels unite in A few months after the start of the protests, radical Islamists are actively joining the opposition. In the middle of the year, a suicide bomber kills several senior government officials.
In autumn, the fighting practically does not stop. The EU and the US are actively supporting the rebels, transferring technical and material assistance to them. A number of Western allies are imposing sanctions against Syria. Government forces managed to recapture a number of cities and ensure reliable protection of Damascus. The rebels announce plans to attack Aleppo, the second most populous city after the capital. They make several unsuccessful assaults.
International presence
The conflict in Syria is starting to attract more and more external players. Turkey is officially starting to support the opposition. In the summer of 2012, immediately after the announcement of joining the war, government forces shot down a Turkish plane and opened fire on other targets. Later, artillery covers a convoy of Turkish vehicles after crossing the border.
Libya and Iran are starting to support Assad. Armed members of the Hezbollah (can be translated as "party of Allah") arrive in Syria. Together with them, the Syrian army liberates Al-Quseir. In the winter, the Assad regime launches a large-scale offensive that brings significant gains. Against this background, there are constant terrorist attacks in cities controlled by the government.
Opposition troops are less and less suited to their stereotype in the West. Islamists join the armed groups. Al-Qaeda is sending a significant contingent to Syria. The cells of this terrorist organization set up training camps.
Relations with Turkey are escalating. Several armed skirmishes take place. The Turkish Parliament allows the use of military establishment against Syria, but the war does not start. Several Gulf countries, which are allies of the United States, provide regular assistance to anti-government forces.
Role of Kurdistan
The conflict in Syria has many different forces. Kurdistan is a serious player and is often referred to as a "third party". Kurds live in eastern Syria, Iraq and Turkey. Their armed militia is called the Peshmerga. This organization was created to protect the territory inhabited by ethnic Kurds. Loyal to the Assad regime, actively opposing ISIS.
Islamization of the conflict
By 2014, the protracted war is gaining momentum. "Moderate" opposition practically does not play any role. It is still actively supported by the EU and the United States, but in Syria, only the language of weapons is now understood. The main hostilities are ongoing. The Jabhat al-Nusra organization controls a significant part of Syria. They are often called terrorists, information appears in the media that aid is coming from the United States to the Islamists through the "opposition".
ISIS is one of the most violent and largest organizations that has catalyzed the conflict in Syria. The reasons for the success of this organization are still controversial among analysts. The world learned about IS after its militants suddenly captured the large city of Mosul. On the territory under their control, the Islamists created their own state. The local population lives strictly according to For example, men are forbidden to cut their hair. Various cruel punishments are imposed for violations of the rules.
One of the most important components of IS activity is propaganda. The world community was amazed at a number of videos in which militants execute prisoners. Moreover, the murders take place with sophistication and are removed by professionals. ISIS is considered an international terrorist organization. A number of NATO countries and Russia are striking the territories of the Islamic state.