The duration of a business cycle is measured by the time interval between. Causes of business cycles. Multiplication-acceleration mechanism of cycles. Business cycle: concept, causes and phases

Country However, this growth is neither constant nor smooth. The economy is subject to fluctuations, which are often called business cycles or economic cycles.

Business cycles have long attracted the attention of economists who seek not only to identify patterns of cyclical development, but also to predict future economic development.

business cycle called the time interval between two identical states of the economic situation.

Economic (business) cycle— ups and downs in the levels of economic (business) activity over several years. This is the period of time between two identical states of the economic situation.

Cyclical fluctuations may experience different, but the most common is the analysis of business cycles using the example of fluctuations in the value (or). On fig. 4.1 is a diagram of the business cycle. The trend line (or the average value of GDP over a number of years) shows the general direction of economic development over time, the GDP line shows the real fluctuations of this indicator.

Rice. 4.1. business cycle

Business cycles are characterized by the following important indicators:

• oscillation amplitude- the maximum difference between the largest and smallest value of the indicator during the cycle (distance CD);
• cycle time- the period of time during which one complete fluctuation of business activity takes place (distance AB).

By duration, the cycles are divided into:

• short cycles associated with the recovery in the consumer market, fluctuations in wholesale prices and changes in the stocks of firms. Their duration is 2-4 years;
• average cycles associated with changes in the investment demand of enterprises, with long-term accumulation and improvement of technologies. Their duration is 10-15 years;
• long cycles (waves) associated with discoveries or important technical innovations and their dissemination. Their duration is 40-60 years.

The theory of long waves of the economic cycle by Nikolai Kondratiev

The theory of long waves was developed in detail by an outstanding Russian economist Nikolai Dmitrievich Kondratiev(1892-1938) in a number of works, including the monograph "The World Economy and Its Conjuncture During and After the War" (1922) and the report "Great Cycles of the Economic Conjuncture" (1925). N.D. Kondratiev since the end of the XXVIII century. Based on the factual material, he identified three large waves:

• I. from the late 80s - early 90s. XVIII century until 1844-1851;
• II. from 1844-1851 to 1890-1896;
• III. from 1890-1896 around 1939-1945.

If we continue the main trends outlined by N.D. Kondratiev, then the fourth and fifth waves can be distinguished:

• IV. from 1939-1945 to 1982-1985
• V. upward wave from 1982-1985

The main role in the change of cycles, according to N.D. Kondratiev, play scientific and technical innovations. So, for the first wave (the end of the 18th century), inventions and shifts in the textile industry and the production of iron played a decisive role. Growth during the second wave (mid-19th century) was primarily due to the construction of railways, the rapid development of maritime transport, which made it possible to develop new economic territories and transform agriculture. The third wave (beginning of the 20th century) was prepared by inventions in the field of electrical engineering and was based on the massive introduction of electricity, radio, telephone and other innovations.

Continuing the analysis of N.D. Kondratiev, it can be assumed that the fourth wave (40s) is associated with the invention and introduction of synthetic materials, plastics, electronic computers of the first generations, and the fifth (80s) - with the mass introduction of microprocessors, the achievements of genetic engineering , biotechnology, etc.

It should be noted that in real life, some cycles are superimposed on others, and within the framework of longer fluctuations, several short cycles occur.

Cycle phases

Cycles differ in duration and intensity, but all cycles go through the same phases:

There are 4 stages (or phases) in the cycle structure:

1. Rise. In the upswing phase, the national income grows from year to year, decreases to the natural level, and the amount of real capital grows, but this growth slows down. Also, due to increased consumer and investment demand, prices and rates are increasing.
2. Boom. The boom phase ends with a boom in which there is overcapacity and overcapacity, the price level, the wage rate and the interest rate are very high. Investments in production are almost not carried out due to the high cost of attracting resources.
3. Recession. Production and employment are shrinking. A decrease in demand causes prices for goods and services to fall. Investment becomes negative because, at this stage of the cycle, not only are firms not making new capital investments, but there is an increase in idle capacity. Many firms suffer losses or go bankrupt.
4. Recession day. The rate of decline is slowing down and is now stabilizing. The decline in production and the growth of unemployment reach their maximum values. Prices are minimal. Only the strongest firms survived. Potential for future growth is accumulating - at low interest rates, the volume of investment increases. The transition to the recovery stage occurs after a certain period of time, when investments begin to bring returns.

The four phases of the cycle considered may differ in duration or depth. So, for example, against the background of an upward long wave of the Kondratiev cycle, medium and short cycles will have a longer and more intense rise and a short-term insignificant decline. In the situation of a downward long wave, on the contrary, the recessions will be deep and long, and the rises will be insignificant and short-lived.

It should be noted that not for all cycles the behavior of macroeconomic indicators coincides with that described above. There are situations when, against the backdrop of a decline in production and rising unemployment, there is also an increase in prices. This situation is called stagflation and most often occurs with sudden changes in the economic situation. Stagflation was observed in the 70s. in developed countries during energy crises caused by rising oil prices. Another example is Russia in the 90s. after the beginning of the economic transformation.

Crisis as the most important element of the cycle

The recession phase in the economy is also called the crisis and depression phase. This stage is of particular importance for the economy, because after the crisis, the composition of enterprises is renewed, the strongest and most efficient firms survive, new inventions appear and new economic opportunities open up. However, the crisis is also a great social shock - people lose their jobs, their incomes are reduced, and the standard of living of the population is declining. Therefore, the prevention or mitigation of crises is one of the most important tasks of the state.

The cyclical development of the economy began to manifest itself clearly starting from the 19th century. The first cyclical crisis of overproduction occurred in England in 1825. In the 19th century. cyclical crises occurred in individual countries, they did not coincide in time and were due to internal reasons for the development of countries or world non-economic events (in particular, wars).

The first crisis called global, which began in the United States and spread to other capitalist countries in 1929-1933, was called the Great Depression. Among its causes were the deformed structure of the economy after the First World War, the disruption of traditional world economic ties, and the monopolization of the economy. The crisis manifested itself in a significant drop in production, a high level of unemployment, and a significant reduction in the volume of world trade. It covered all branches of industry (especially the branches of ferrous metallurgy, mechanical engineering, mining, maritime transport, etc.) and agriculture. The general nature of the crisis reduced the possibilities for countries to maneuver at the global level. The consequences of this crisis were overcome only as a result of the upsurge caused by the Second World War.

After the Second World War, a rapid economic recovery began, associated with the restoration of the economy, overcoming the destruction caused by the war. However, the recovery potential was exhausted rather quickly, and already in 1957-1958. A new global crisis broke out, most severely affecting the United States. For the first time in the post-war period, the total export of finished products fell, and a series of structural crises began (in the raw materials industries, shipbuilding, etc.).

Cause of the next crisis(1974-1975), one might say, is random, not subject to the laws of economic development. The impetus was a four-fold increase in the price of the oil they exported by the OPEC cartel. Many developed countries are facing a severe shortage of energy resources. Oil-importing countries were forced to reduce its consumption or look for substitutes and introduce energy-saving technologies. The volume of national production has decreased, while prices have risen, i.e. stagflation was observed.

In 1980-1982 a new crisis erupted, the main victims of which were developing countries. Most developing countries during the second half of the twentieth century. passed the stage of transition from the agrarian structure of the economy to the industrial one. Since their own funds were not enough to achieve this goal, they were forced to attract foreign capital. By the beginning of the 80s. the external debt of developing countries turned out to be too large, and many of them were unable to pay not only the principal amount of the debt, but also the interest on it.

90s turned out to be years of stagnation for most developed countries - production developed at a slow pace, fluctuations in unemployment and inflation were insignificant. but
90s were years of upheaval for the countries of Eastern Europe and the USSR, which ceased to exist in 1991. A deep transformational crisis in Russia, which was the result of the transition from a planned way of doing business to a market one, covered all aspects of economic life. During the reforms, industrial production decreased by about 60% (many economists talk about deindustrialization of the economy), the country experienced a period of high inflation, property inequality of citizens increased, more than 30% of the population fell below the poverty line.

Summarizing the above, we can note several features of cyclic development:

1. With the development of national economies and the strengthening of international interdependence, crises from local (national) are turning into global ones.
2. The period of time between crises is shortening; the period of cyclic fluctuations decreases.
3. A random factor is added to the patterns of cyclical development of the economy.
4. Systemic (or transformational) crises do not fit into the generally accepted scheme of the cycle. As a rule, they are caused by institutional transformations that take place not only in the economic, but also in other spheres of public life.

Cycle theories

Multiplier-accelerator model

This approach assumes that business cycles reproduce themselves. Once started, they, like a swing, make endless oscillations. Only the reason for the fluctuations here is not external, but lies in the very essence of the cycle.

The mechanism of fluctuations is described as follows: an increase in demand for the products of firms causes an increase in investment and, as a result, in the gross domestic product. Moreover, it increases by a larger amount than investment due to the effect. Further, the increase in GDP requires new investments both for the reproduction of increased capacities and for further development. The intensity of this process is determined by the size of the accelerator. At some point in time, all available resources are exhausted, and - saturated. In this situation, the reverse process begins - investments are reduced, as a result, GDP is reduced, and there is a further decrease in investment according to the accelerator principle. Having reached a certain point, the process reverses.

This theory is difficult to apply to explain real economic cycles, since in life cyclical fluctuations are not regular, there are other factors that affect the system from the outside. The following theory tries to take into account the already mentioned random factor.

Momentum-propagation mechanism

This model assumes that the economy is subject to random but recurring disturbances, shocks, or shocks. They can affect demand (for example, the mood of entrepreneurs or buyers, which can become optimistic or pessimistic; the behavior of the state), as well as supply (for example, unprecedented low or high harvests, natural disasters, important inventions and discoveries, etc. .). Favorable shocks can increase GDP, while unfavorable shocks can reduce it.

The list of potential shocks is endless. These shocks bring the economy out of its current state and set off a knock-on effect (Figure 4.2). The considered shocks, or impulses, change the conditions of supply or demand in the economy. Having experienced a random shock, national production begins to fluctuate in the pattern described in the previous section until the next shock occurs. The discovery that economic cycles are generated by purely random factors was made in the late 20s and early
30s Russian economist Yevgeny Slutsky and Norwegian economist Ragnar Frisch, the latter of whom was awarded the Nobel Prize.

4.2. Mechanism "momentum-propagation"

Monetary concept of economic cycles

In the two models discussed above, cycles are caused by some change in supply or demand. In contrast, monetary concepts link fluctuations in economic activity to changes in the monetary sector.

The starting point of the economic cycle, according to this theory, is the growth in the supply of credit from the banking system. As a result, the interest rate decreases, investment increases, and, consequently, aggregate demand increases. So there is a phase of rise, which is accompanied by an increase in the price level. Over time, the economic recovery stops under the influence of two main factors. Firstly, the excess reserves of commercial banks decrease (their ability to issue loans decreases), and secondly, the country's foreign exchange reserves are reduced, because due to the high level of prices, imports increase (the outflow of foreign currency increases), and exports decrease (the inflow of foreign currency decreases). currencies). These factors create a shortage in the money market, and the interest rate begins to rise, and the volume of investment - to decline. The recession phase begins: production and employment are reduced, the nominal wage rate is reduced, the price level is falling, net exports are growing, foreign exchange reserves and the monetary base are increasing. This paves the way for a new growth in bank credit.

evolutionary theory

The evolutionary theory of economic cycles is the youngest and still the least developed in economic science. There is a very limited number of works on this topic (theories of J. Schumpeter, K. Freeman, S. Glazyev, etc.).

4.3. Dependence of GDP on the emergence and development of macro-generations

The basic idea of ​​an evolutionary economy is the concept of economic natural selection, when the development of the most competitive economic entities occurs due to the displacement of other, weaker ones from the economic space. If the macro level of the economy is presented as a set of economic subsystems, in each of which "natural selection" takes place, then these subsystems can be called macrogenerations. Macrogeneration can be interpreted as part of the means of production that produce part of the GDP and include a certain technical level of production in various sectors of the national economy. The term of her life is limited in time, i.e. it is born, exists for a period of time and dies. The relationship between macro generation and GDP is shown in Figure 4.3.

The cyclical development of the economy can be represented as a change of macro generations. The emergence of new macrogeneration, usually due to the development of scientific and technological progress, causes an economic upswing in the country. Old, already existing macro-generations are gradually leaving economic life, causing a reduction in production.

From the standpoint of evolutionary economics, the following features of cyclical development can be distinguished:

• each new macro generation most often appears during periods of decline in production, more precisely, at turning points from recession to recovery;
• during the growth of new macrogeneration, as a rule, there is an economic recovery, a slowdown in the growth of macrogeneration is accompanied by a cessation of growth;
• from the moment of the emergence of a new macrogeneration until the birth of the next one, the trajectory of GDP goes through both an upswing phase and a downswing phase, i.e. full business cycle.

Other cycle theories

The cyclical development of the economy has long attracted the close attention of economists. The above theories do not exhaust the entire list of explanations for cycles. Other theories include the following:

1. Theory of periodic solar activity. The idea is that the sun greatly influences agricultural yields. In the event of drought and crop failure, agricultural production is reduced, it spreads to related industries and beyond.
2. Model of interaction between savings and investments. The accumulation of savings by the population leads to a decrease in the interest rate, the volume of investments increases, and national production grows. Further, due to an increase in demand for investment, the interest rate rises, which reduces the attractiveness of investment and reduces national production.
3. Psychological theories. These theories consider the behavior of people depending on the economic situation. People can have positive or negative assessments of future events and act on their predictions. If economic agents assume the onset of the recovery phase, they increase their activity, but if they predict a recession, then, accordingly, they reduce business activity.

Each historical stage was characterized by a series of periodically recurring ups and downs in the social production process, acting as some kind of oscillatory-wave process.

In the early stages of the development of society, when the basis of social production was the creation of agricultural products, periodic fluctuations were largely associated with the dynamics of weather and climate conditions: with colds, frosts, rains, droughts and other natural disasters. Later, during the period of rapid development of industrial production, periodic fluctuations in ups and downs in the production process became characteristic of industry as well. Moreover, they naturally repeated at strictly defined intervals.

Analysis of the periodicity of fluctuations is carried out according to the sequence of repetition of recessions in the production of material and spiritual values, which in the economic literature are referred to as economic crises.

In society, economic crises manifested themselves for the most part as crises of overproduction of material and spiritual goods in the form of commodity values, in the form of overproduction of goods. The overproduction of goods was relative. It was more about the fact that the population was unable to buy the amount of goods produced, i.e., there was a discrepancy between the totality of values ​​in monetary terms produced by society and the availability of funds from the population of one side or another. The production process had to be interrupted. This break in the production process manifested itself as an economic crisis. Economic crises were repeated with a strictly defined frequency. This kind of production process has been defined as a cyclic process.

Under cycle usually understand the repetitive movement of the production process from one economic crisis to the beginning of another.

A cycle is a time period of economic development, located between two successive upper turning points.

In the course of the study, it was found that there are a great many cycles covering a particular set of economic phenomena and they differ in length of time. The cycles were systematized and given the names of researchers:

• - Kitchin cycle - 3-4 years;
• - Juglar cycle 6-8 years;
• - Labrus cycle - 10-12 years;
• - Kuznets cycle - about 2 decades;
• - Kondratiev cycle - 47 and 60 years.

Researchers today are successfully studying the cycles characteristic of social production that exceed a period of 100 years.

If earlier the cycles of social production were associated to a large extent only with the production and economic activities of people, then recently an increasing number of researchers have come to the conclusion that large cycles of the functioning of social development should also be associated with still unknown cosmic phenomena. Cycles are a manifestation of the close relationship between the developing nature and the production and economic activities of society.

Reliable knowledge of the cycles of social production allows society to develop a system of measures to mitigate the harmful effects of a wave-like oscillatory process.

business cycle called the time interval between two identical states of the economy (economic situation).

General ideas about cyclical fluctuations (primarily in trade) developed at the beginning of the 19th century. and are associated with the names of Ricardo, Say, Sismondi and Malthus. The merit of these economists lies in the fact that they tried to find an explanation for the crises that the trade of that time regularly encountered. The analysis of the issue was based on the thesis that accumulation ensures demand. Crises arise from insufficient consumption, which creates a surplus of generated income. The lack of consumption was due to the plight of the working masses. These scientists were not able to create a general theory of economic cycles, but this was also impossible due to the underdevelopment of market mechanisms at the beginning of the 19th century.

In the middle of the XIX century. the theme of trade crises was developed in the works of K. Juglar and K. Marx.

It is generally accepted that the term "cycle" was first used by K. Juglar. Studying the dynamics of periodic fluctuations in trade, he determined the length of economic cycles at 7-11 years (these cycles are called Juglar cycles); he also divided the cycle into three periods - prosperity, crisis and liquidation, substantiating the cyclicality in the economy by money circulation and bank loans.

A serious contribution to the theory of economic cycles was made by K. Marx. One of his main theses is that the capitalist economy is unable to achieve equilibrium due to the fact that powerful forces are inherent in it, causing economic crises.

K. Marx considers the causes of crises in two aspects. The first stems from his theory of under-accumulation based on cyclical fluctuations in the rate of profit. Every capitalist is interested in the improvement of the means of production, since this allows him to increase profits. The conditions of competition determine the investment by capitalists of ever greater funds in the technical equipment of production, but the introduction of new technology is connected with the release of workers from production processes. Since the basis of the formation of profit, as K. Marx showed, is hired labor, a reduction in the number of workers causes a decrease in the rate of profit. The economy comes to balance through the crisis. As a result of the latter, capital investment in production is sharply reduced, the need for hired workers increases again, and this leads to an increase in the rate of profit and the introduction of the economy into a new development cycle.

The second aspect of the emergence of crises stems from Marx's theory of underconsumption. Overproduction crises are related to the fact that the transition from simple to expanded production does not generate a proportional increase in demand. Overstocking occurs, resulting in a decrease in product prices. Production costs exceed reduced prices, which forces the capitalists to destroy significant volumes of manufactured products and, thus, localize the crisis.

K. Marx considered overcoming crises through the replacement of manual labor with machine labor, therefore his conclusion that the basis of the economic cycle is the regular mass renewal of fixed capital is the focus of a number of modern concepts of economic cycles.

A. Marshall, studying the problems associated with trade crises, explained them by monetary relations in society. However, the great merit of A. Marshall is to consider the equilibrium state of supply and demand. When supply and demand are in equilibrium, the scientist calls the quantity of a good produced per unit of time the equilibrium quantity, and the price at which it is sold, the equilibrium price. A. Marshall believes that a characteristic feature of stable equilibria is that in them the demand price exceeds the supply price by an amount slightly less than the equilibrium quantity, and vice versa. When the demand price is higher than the supply price, the quantity produced tends to increase. That is why when the demand price exceeds the supply price by a quantity only slightly less than the equilibrium quantity, then with a temporary reduction in the scale of production somewhat below the equilibrium quantity of production, there will be a tendency to return to its equilibrium level, and as a result, the equilibrium remains stable against deviations in this direction. . If the demand price is higher than the supply price by a quantity of a good that is slightly less than the equilibrium quantity, then it will certainly be lower than the supply price by a slightly larger quantity of a good. That is why, if the volume of production slightly exceeds its equilibrium state, it will tend to return to its previous position, the equilibrium will be stable against deviations in this direction as well.

A. Marshall strengthened the influence of the time factor on ongoing processes in economic analysis. His task was to bring the general theory of supply and demand to different periods. Thus, the concepts of "short-term" and "long-term" periods were introduced into the analysis, which played an important role in the study of economic dynamics.

Fluctuations in supply and demand in market conditions were at the center of the work of the prominent Russian scientist M. Tugan-Baranovsky, who argued that the sharpest fluctuations are found in industries that produce elements of fixed capital. These fluctuations are reflected in the general rise and fall of economic activity, covering the entire industry. The reason for this is the interdependence of various industries throughout the economy.

The production of elements of fixed capital, M. Tugan-Baranovsky points out, creates demand for other goods. In order to create new enterprises, it is necessary to produce the primary materials that ensure production, namely consumer goods for workers. The expansion of production in one area increases the demand for the products of other industries. That is why, during a period of rapid growth in the accumulation of fixed capital, there is a general increase in the demand for goods. However, this is followed by saturation, overproduction of the means of production. Due to the dependence of all branches of industry on each other, this partial overproduction, connected with the instruments of production, results in a general overproduction, and prices fall. There comes a period of general economic decline, which leads to a reduction in the number of enterprises. This circumstance, points out M. Tugan-Baranovsky, inevitably causes a violation of proportionality in the sphere of distribution of production forces. The equilibrium between aggregate demand and aggregate supply is broken. Since new firms create an expanded demand not only for capital goods but also for consumer goods, it follows that, with fewer new firms, industries supplying consumer goods also experience a reduction in demand no less than those supplying funds. production. Overproduction becomes general. Thus, the crisis is caused by disproportions in the development of industries. Some of them grow at a faster rate, so that during the cyclical phase of expansion the proportionality of production is disturbed and the new equilibrium can only be restored by destroying part of the capital of those branches of industry that have overextended.

Of course, these views pay tribute to the works of K. Marx, but M. Tugan-Baranovsky had his own approach to explaining the disequilibrium of a market economy.

M. Tugan-Baranovsky connects the development of the disproportionality of industries with the conditions for the placement of free (loan) capital. The demand for capital rises sharply during the period of prosperity of industry, which ensures the investment of loan capital in production and its transformation into fixed capital. During a crisis, the demand for loan capital falls and it begins to accumulate until the next rise.

So, according to M. Tugan-Baranovsky, the basis of prosperity is investments.

Thus, under the economic cycle is meant the period of economic development between two identical states of the conjuncture. The foundations of the theory of cyclical fluctuations originated at the end of the industrial revolution. The original form of this theory is the concept of crises. The most noticeable stimulus for the development of these studies was the global economic crisis at the beginning of the 20th century. Systematized collection, generalization of empirical and statistical material made it possible to gradually give many concepts the form of theoretical models.

2.2 Types of cycles. The economic cycle and its phases. Cycle phase functions

To date, economic science distinguishes several types of cycles. The most elementary of them - annual, which are associated with seasonal fluctuations under the influence of changes in natural and climatic conditions and the time factor.

short cycles, the duration of which is estimated to be 40 months, i.e. a little more than 3 years, due to alleged fluctuations in world gold reserves. This conclusion was made in relation to the conditions of the domination of the gold standard.

Medium-term, or industrial cycles, as shown by more than 150 years of world practice, they can have a duration of 7-12 years, although their classical type covers approximately a 10-year period. This type of cyclic development is a further object of our analysis. It is associated with a multifactorial model of disruption and restoration of economic balance, proportionality and balance of the national economy.

Building cycles cover a 15-20-year period and are determined by the duration of the renewal of fixed capital. In this regard, we can say that these cycles tend to decrease under the influence of scientific and technical progress factors that cause obsolescence of equipment and the policy of accelerated depreciation.

Big cycles have a duration of approximately 50-60 years; they are caused mainly by the dynamics of scientific and technical progress.

Business cycle- periodic fluctuations in the levels of employment, production and inflation.

The reasons for cyclicity are: periodic depletion of autonomous investments, weakening of the multiplier effect, fluctuations in the volume of money supply, renewal of basic capital goods, etc.

The economic cycle can be represented in the form of a wave graph that characterizes the process of the dynamics of the production of the gross national product during a certain period.

The system of ideas assumes that a wave oscillatory process takes place in the presence of a trend towards a progressive process of growth in the gross national product and other economic indicators of social production. The economic cycle can be represented in the form of a wave graph that characterizes the process of the dynamics of the production of the gross national product during a certain period.

The system of representations assumes that a wave oscillatory process takes place in the presence of a tendency for a progressive process of growth in the gross national product and other economic indicators of social production.

Let us consider the phases of the wave-like oscillatory process.

Conventionally, the period between peaks of recovery (recession) of a developing economy is divided into four phases (Fig. 2.1.):

Rice. 2.1

Crisis phase (recession) is considered from the moment of the suspension of the rise in the development of the economy and the beginning of the decline in the production of material and spiritual values ​​until the moment of the suspension of the decline. This period is characterized by the excess of production of goods in comparison with the growth of effective demand of the population, which leads to a decrease in the sale of goods - overstocking of firms and corporations. As a way out, firms are trying to reduce the prices of goods, which of course does not solve the problem. Therefore, entrepreneurs reduce the volume of production and, as a result, lay off excess workers. Unemployment is on the rise in the country. In addition, entrepreneurs are not always able to make payments for the supply of raw materials, materials, energy, payments on loans. As a result, the banking system is in crisis. Banks are going bankrupt.

The phase of the state of depression - there is a halt in the decline in the production of goods and a slight increase in production compared to the crisis period. A surplus of free cash appears, which does not find application in industrial production and is concentrated in banks. During this period, the rate of loan interest is minimal. The surplus of goods is gradually decreasing (some are sold at reduced prices, some are destroyed for various reasons: deterioration, obsolescence, etc.)

Revitalization state phase (expansion) characterized by a significant increase in the production of goods, but within limits not exceeding any significantly higher point reached before the crisis. An important qualitative moment that characterizes this phase is the increase in the production of "traditional goods" by enterprises that survived in economically difficult conditions, updated the means of production and began to increase the pace of production. During this period, they are joined by enterprises that produce new types of goods that have received recognition from consumers.

Rise state phase implies a jump in the level of production compared to the maximum reached in the previous cycle. Unemployment is falling. The demand for money increases, the level of interest on loans rises.

The phase of the state of recovery is characterized by the dominance of enterprises that have updated the range of goods that are in high demand among consumers.

It should be borne in mind that the division of the cycle into four phases is very arbitrary. Various economists offer a different differentiation of phases and their number. So, K. Marx in "Capital" lists the phases of "... average recovery, prosperity, overproduction, crisis and stagnation".

However, the division of the economic cycle into four phases, which at first glance seems arbitrary, in practice has become the only fruitful one in analyzing the features of individual cycles and their phases.

The boundaries separating one phase of the cycle from another are very mobile, it is natural that in one phase of the cycle the conditions for the transition to the next one are prepared. The crisis ripens in the depths of prosperity. A depression is prepared by a crisis. The revival grows within the framework of the depression and only gradually develops into an upswing. The sequence of phases is nothing but the dialectical unity of all moments of the oscillatory wave process of developing social production.

The identification of cycles of various durations with their phases and a description of the phenomena characteristic of these phases shows that people in the course of their life activity are an integral part of these processes and are not yet able to fully resist this powerful element of undulating fluctuations, incurring large economic losses during the period of objective natural ups and downs of social production.

However, the knowledge and certain experience that people have accumulated in comprehending the cyclical fluctuations of economic development allow society today, represented by the state, to develop a strictly defined system of measures to reduce the negative consequences of economic crises.

Thus, the economic cycle is periodic fluctuations in the economic activity of society, a period of time from the beginning of one crisis to the beginning of another. In the cycle, the economy goes through certain phases (stages), each of which characterizes a specific state of the economic system. These are the phases of crisis, depression, revival and recovery. In the structure of the cycle, the highest and lowest points of activity and the phases of decline and rise lying between them are distinguished. The total cycle duration is measured by the time between two adjacent high or two adjacent low points of activity. Accordingly, the duration of the decline is the time between the highest and subsequent lowest points of activity, and the rise - vice versa.

2.3 Counter-cyclical public policy

The counter-cyclical policy of the state is a set of measures taken by the state in order to smooth out fluctuations in economic activity and aimed at combating both the crisis of the economy and the boom.

Different views on the causes of cyclic fluctuations also determine different approaches to solving the problem of their regulation. Despite the variety of points of view on the problem of countercyclical regulation, they can be reduced to two main approaches: Keynesian and classical. As we know from the theory of economic equilibrium, the supporters of Keynes considered aggregate demand to be the central element of regulation, while the supporters of the classics considered aggregate supply.

Counter-cyclical regulation is in the system of ways and methods of influencing the economic situation and economic activity, aimed at mitigating cyclical fluctuations. At the same time, the efforts of the state have the opposite direction of the emerging economic situation at each phase of the economic cycle.

However, two key points should be emphasized. Despite all efforts, the state cannot overcome the cyclical nature of economic development; it can only smooth out cyclical fluctuations in order to maintain economic stability. Finally, it is necessary to realize and accept cyclicity with its crisis phase as the inevitability of not only destruction, but also creation, because it is associated with the restoration of macroeconomic balance in the renewal of the economic organism of the national economy.

Proponents of Keynesianism, focusing on aggregate demand, focus on the regulatory role of the state with its financial and budgetary instruments, which are used either to reduce or increase spending, or to manipulate tax rates, compress or expand the system of tax incentives. At the same time, monetary policy plays an important, but still auxiliary role.

The state, using the Keynesian model of counter-cyclical regulation, in the phase of crisis and depression increases public spending, including spending on enhancing investment activity, and pursues a policy of "cheap money". In the conditions of recovery, in order to prevent the economy from “overheating” and thereby smooth out the peak of the transition from recovery to recession, the same tools are used, but with the opposite sign, aimed at compressing, curtailing aggregate demand.

Proponents of the classical, or conservative direction, focus on the proposal. It is about ensuring the use of available resources and creating conditions for efficient production, withholding support from low-efficient industries and sectors of the economy and promoting free market forces.

The state influences the economic system in the opposite direction relative to the given phase of the cycle. If production falls, the state pursues a stimulating policy, if the “overheating” of the market is brewing, then the state pursues a restraining policy. Measures of the countercyclical policy of the state are presented in Table 2.1.

Table 2.1. Measures of the countercyclical policy of the state

Monetary regulation becomes the main tool. The money supply becomes the main lever of influence on the national economy, a means of combating inflation. Attention is paid not to credit liberalization, but to credit restriction, i.e. pursuing a policy of "dear money" by raising interest rates, which should help combat the overaccumulation of capital. Fiscal policy is used as an auxiliary tool. A strict policy is being pursued to reduce government spending, and, consequently, to compress, first of all, consumer demand. The tax policy is aimed at reducing tax rates and the degree of progressiveness of the tax scale. Moreover, the priority of such tax measures is addressed to the business sector.

The consequence of the counter-cyclical policy of the state may be the deformation of the cycle: more frequent crises while reducing their duration and the depth of the fall in production; lengthening of the lifting phase; loss or a significant reduction in the duration of the phase of depression; there is a synchronization of the cycle in different countries, which makes it difficult for economies to get out of the crisis by expanding exports.

The transformation of inflation into a chronic phenomenon of the market economy has changed the classical picture of the crisis. In the last 50 years, the decline in production is usually accompanied by an increase in prices, i.e. stagflation is observed.

Along with cyclical crises in modern conditions, a new type of crisis has appeared - a transformational crisis associated with a change, reform of the economic system, the transition from a planned to a market (mixed) economy.

Thus, we draw the following conclusions:

• 1) Progressive economic development is carried out cyclically. The cycle successively passes through the phases of crisis, depression, recovery and recovery. None of the origin theories has the right to be definitive. Modern cycles have a "blurred" picture of the cyclical wave and due to the relative overaccumulation of capital, not goods. In addition, the effect of scientific and technological progress, monopolies and attempts at counter-cyclical state regulation have led to the smoothing of cyclical waves, a decrease in the depth of the crisis phase, and a reduction in depression.
• 2) All countries with a market economy, despite the commitment of their governments to one or another model, concept of development, in their practical activities for state regulation of the national economy, resort to the use of both Keynesian and classical methods of influencing market conditions, economic activity, depending on the decision short term or long term goals.

Economic development is uneven and is successive ups and downs in the level of economic activity, manifested in various forms of mismatch between aggregate demand and aggregate supply.

Periodically recurring fluctuations in the movement of social production (growth of business activity, its decline, the next growth, etc.) characterize the economic cycle, otherwise the business activity cycle. Exactly consistency, repeatability, regularity, reproducibility and systematic occurrence of events are essential features cyclic development.

Cyclic development is inevitable and follows from the peculiarities of the technique and technology of the machine stage in the development of productive forces. Since scientific and technological progress is carried out in stages, the development of production is also carried out in steps - in cycles. First economic crisis took place in England in 1825. Since then, about every 10 years, there has been a violation of the economic balance of the reproduction process - there are sales difficulties, a drop in production, a decrease in investment, and a shock to the credit sector. In 1857, the first world crisis of overproduction took place.

Fluctuations affecting economic activity in the economy as a whole, that is, market fluctuations, are considered cyclical. They should be distinguished from seasonal fluctuations (in agriculture, construction, tourism), which affect only certain industries and do not have a significant impact on the national economy.

Cyclical fluctuations occur in a wave-like form around a long-term trend - the trend of economic development, defined as a growth trend. Spiral movement is a characteristic feature and expression of a progressive character cyclic development.

Despite the fact that individual business cycles differ in duration and intensity, they all have the same phases (Fig. 4.1
). In the structure of the cycle, the highest point of economic activity is distinguished - the peak (points b and f) and trough of economic activity- the bottom (point d), and the ascending phase lying between them - the phase of rise (expansion) and the descending phase - the phase of recession (compression). Deviation of the peak or low point of the decline from the trend line characterizes the amplitude of cyclic oscillations. The time interval between two identical states of the economic situation called the period of the economic cycle.

A more detailed analysis of the cycle allows us to distinguish four phases in it, when the upswing phase is divided into the recovery phase and the upswing itself, and the downturn phase is divided into crisis and depression.

The lifting phase is characterized increase in capital investment, employment, income, consumer demand and money supply(inflation). Production expansion begins to outpace demand. The economy is above the level of potential output and is called "overheated". The decline in business activity due to "overheating" creates the prerequisites for the crisis phase.

Crisis (recession) characterized by the curtailment of production and a decrease in profits, an increase in the mass of unsold products, an increase in unemployment and a decrease in living standards, and a depreciation of fixed capital.

Enterprises facing the threat of bankruptcy agree to high interest loans above the average rate of return.

Prices fall only if the decline in production is severe (in the classical situation, stagflation takes place, which manifests itself in the simultaneous reduction in production, rising unemployment and inflation).

The crisis is usually creates incentives to reduce production costs, leads to the renewal of the means of production and products, that is, it becomes an impetus for the development of the economy. Thus, in phase of the crisis, on the one hand, disrupted the normal cycle of reproduction, but on the other hand, conditions are simultaneously emerging for the progressive renewal of capital, reducing production costs, improving product quality, which makes this phase the main phase of the economic cycle.

depression presents phase of the deepest downturn in business activity. Output reaches its lowest level and unemployment reaches its highest level. There is no demand for money capital on the part of entrepreneurs. The lending rate falls. There is a decrease in commodity stocks by their sale at reduced prices or by destruction. The economic situation is stabilizing.

In the recovery phase increasing demand for fixed capital. On a new technical basis, production is expanding, first in the main sectors, and then in other sectors of the economy. Investments, employment, wages are growing, consumer demand is expanding, output is increasing. When output exceeds the pre-crisis level, the recovery phase is replaced by the recovery phase. So the business cycle is the period within and on the basis of the material prerequisites of which the emergence and resolution of contradictions of economic growth takes place.

The most important characteristics of the phases of the economic cycle are the dynamics of GDP, the level of capacity utilization and the unemployment rate. Depending on how the value of economic variables changes during the cycle, they are divided into pro-cyclical and counter-cyclical parameters.

Procyclic parameters are those that increase during the boom phase and decrease during the recession phase (for example, aggregate output, capacity utilization, general price level, interest rate).

Countercyclic parameters are those that increase during a downturn and decrease during an upswing (e.g. unemployment rate, stocks of finished goods, number of bankruptcies). Economic variables, the dynamics of which does not reveal a connection with the phases of the economic cycle, are called acyclic parameters(for example, the volume of exports).

The rates of change of various parameters usually do not coincide, provided that one procyclical variables increase, others are already decreasing, and vice versa, if some countercyclical variables decrease while others increase.

Therefore, the cycle parameters are also divided into leading, lagging and corresponding if they reach their optimal value (maximum or minimum) before or after the highest or lowest point of economic activity. Leading cycles peak or bottom before peaking or bottoming, for example if there is a change in stocks or the money supply.

delayed cycles reach a maximum or minimum after reaching a peak or bottom, for example, if payroll costs and interest rates of commercial banks have changed.

Corresponding cycles reach their maximum at the time of the highest or lowest point of economic activity, for example, as a result of changes in the unemployment rate.

The discrepancy between the rates of change of various parameters of the cycle ensures the smoothness of the change in the phases of rise and fall.

In the general structure of economic crises, one should distinguish structural crises, which are called crises, covering only individual elements of the economic system: agricultural production, energy production, the monetary sector, etc. The patterns of the course of these crises have some specific features.

For the analysis of economic development, the classification of cycles is used, based on two criteria:

1) from the standpoint of the driving forces that determine the emergence and mechanism of the course of the economic cycle;

2) the temporal aspect characterizing the duration of the cycle.

All the many approaches to explaining the causes and mechanism of the economic cycle in modern economic theory are combined into three large groups.

1. External theories- proceed from the premise that the cycle is caused by external (exogenous) causes that lie outside the economic systems. Such reasons may be:

Population migration (Kuznets),

Discovery of gold deposits, new lands and resources, innovations ( Kondratiev, Schumpeter, Hansen),

Wars, revolutions, political events and elections, natural factors, including the frequency of solar activity ( Jevons, Chizhevsky, Hubbert),

Fluctuations in the optimistic and pessimistic mood of the population (Pigou, Baggot), etc.

2. Internal theories- start from the premise, then the cycle is conditioned internal (endogenous) causes. Such reasons may be:

An increase in demand for consumer goods, leading to a multiple increase in demand for equipment and machinery (Clark),

Fluctuations in the marginal efficiency of capital (Keynes, Hicks),

Underconsumption of income, that is, insufficient investment (Hobson, Foster),

Overinvestment (Hayek, Mises),

The contradiction between the social nature of production and the private capitalist form of appropriation of the results of production (Marx);

Expansion and contraction of bank credit and other problems in the sphere of money circulation (Houtrey, Mitchell), etc.

3. Synthetic theories- these are theories that combine the causes of cyclicity, they are based on the premise that the economic system, according to its internal nature, responds to fluctuations in external factors, that is, external causes set initial impulses, and internal causes develop them into phase fluctuations ( Samuelson, Boyer, Bertrand, Lipets).

From point of view temporary criterion distinguish the following main cycles:

1. Short Term Kitchin Cycles- have a duration of 3-5 years and are manifested in fluctuations in the inventory of enterprises. They are caused by the restoration of disturbed macroeconomic equilibrium in the consumer market (first-order equilibrium).

2. Medium-term Jouglar cycles or classic cycles- have a duration of 7-11 years. The deployment mechanism of the medium-term cycle is associated with the depreciation and renewal of fixed capital at industrial enterprises without major changes in the existing technological basis. Medium-term cycles follow from the macroeconomic balance achieved in the process of price formation through the intersectoral flow of capital invested in equipment.

3. Blacksmith cycles (construction, reproduction or demographic cycles) - have a duration of 25-30 years. Their driving forces are shifts in the reproductive structure, due to the periodic renovation of dwellings and certain types of industrial facilities.

4. Large cycles (long waves) or Kondratieff cycles- have a duration of 40-60 years. These cycles arise as a result of a radical change in the technological base of social production and its restructuring. Long waves arise as a result of a deviation from equilibrium, the so-called third order, which corresponds to changes in the stocks of basic capital goods (railroads, canals and other elements of the production infrastructure), the specifics of the existing industrial structure of production, the state of the existing raw material base, energy sources, prices, employment, monetary system.

Theory of long waves was founded by a Russian economist N.D. Kondratiev in 1922 in the work "The world economy and its conjuncture during and after the war."

Kondratiev outlined 3 large cycles: the first - approximately 1800 - 1850; the second - 1850 - 1900, the third - 1900 - 1940s.

A major contribution to the theory of long waves was made by Clark, Mitchell, Schumpeter, Rostow and others. In this theory, the unity and interaction of economic dynamics and the economic cycle is manifested - cyclicality is a form of manifestation of uneven economic growth.

5. Model cycles - have a duration of 90-120 years and are associated with periods of global world wars and the establishment of world political and economic power.

6. Civilizational cycles of Toffler with a duration of 1000 years. The study of these cycles is objectively difficult within one generation and can hardly be reliably described.

All cycles overlap. The basis of cyclicity is long waves. Depending on which wave of a large cycle coincides with the usual ones, the effect of the last cycles is strengthened or weakened.

Since cyclic fluctuations are closely related to the motive investment activity, then there is an unevenness of cyclical fluctuations in the sectors of the national economy. The decline is most pronounced in industries that produce durable goods, and to a lesser extent - in industries that produce non-durable goods.

In the 20th century, there was a deformation of the business cycle in the form of the emergence of such trends as:

- blurring of cycle phases:

Crises have become short and shallow;

Due to the low rates of development, the phase of growth is not sharply distinguished; depression can occur not only after the crisis, but also during the recovery phase;

- world loop asynchrony, that is, the discrepancy in different countries and regions of the onset of cycles in time, their duration and phases.

Changes in the manifestations of cyclicity are due to various factors. Ultimately, these are factors that change the very process of reproduction - high rates of scientific and technological progress, leading to the constant emergence of new types of products and industries; reduction of the sphere of material production and expansion of the sphere of non-material production; expanding the forecasting of economic processes, which reduces the spontaneity of market development, etc.

Cyclic development is natural, but this does not mean that society should experience such severe upheavals as during the Great Depression of 1929-1933.

After the Great Depression, for the first time, measures of state anti-cyclical regulation were applied in practice, the theoretical foundations of which were formulated by Keynes. Keynes believed that the cause of crises is the lagging of production behind consumption due to unemployment, insufficient entrepreneurial activity and a high level of savings. Keynes considered the most important anti-crisis measures to be the strengthening of the investment activity of the business sector and the state, lowering the rate of interest, and expanding public works.

Supporters of monetarism argue that government measures to stimulate demand, recommended by the Keynesians, not only do not improve the state of the economy, but also generate new imbalances and crisis recessions. As methods of combating the recession in the economy, they propose maintaining the stability of the money supply, regulating the ratio between the level of national income and the supply of money.

Control questions for lecture 4

1. What causes cyclicity?

2. What phases does the economic cycle contain?

3. What indicators can be used to track the phases of the economic cycle?

4. What are the main types of economic cycles?

5. Who discovered short, medium and long waves of cyclical development of the economy?

6. What are the causes, and what is the duration of short-term cycles?

7. Why is it necessary to determine what cycle the national economy is in?

8. Who discovered what causes and how long are the average cycles?

9. Who discovered long cycles and what do they mean in macroeconomics?

Introduction

The cyclicality of the Russian economy, its susceptibility to the alternation of recessions and booms, is still poorly understood, although the recent crisis has generated a flurry of publications touching on various aspects of the crisis phenomena experienced by Russia. These publications, however, are largely journalistic in nature and do not yet allow one to form a holistic view of the nature of the crisis unfolding in the global economy, its driving forces and possible consequences, as well as the mechanism for overcoming the crisis and the degree of influence of these processes on the Russian economy. The risks that the Russian economy faces on the world stage have not been fully identified, their scale has not been assessed, and possible actions to prevent potential threats have not been fully calculated. In addition, methodological tools have not yet been developed to adequately take into account the impact of world economic cycles when forecasting the main parameters of the Russian economy.

The object of the study is the economic cycles of the Russian economy.

The main goal of this work is to clarify the role of cyclical factors in the dynamics of the main parameters of the Russian economy. This goal was achieved by solving several interrelated tasks, in particular:

1. study the theoretical material of business cycles: duration, amplitude and varieties;

2. to analyze business cycles: duration, amplitude and variety.

In the process of work, a statistical, graphical and econometric analysis of detailed information contained in the Rosstat databases, as well as in the most authoritative academic studies, was carried out.

Theoretical and methodological aspects of business cycles: duration, amplitude and varieties

The second half of the 2000s was marked by the global financial crisis, which made many economists think about its causes. The main reason for this decline, some authors called the economic bubble - "bloating" the market with a large number of securities, including derivatives, sold at a price significantly higher than their real value. Not a single school of economics has put forward sufficiently substantiated hypotheses, assumptions about the properties, problems of economic bubbles and ways to deal with them.

The economic (or business) cycle (business cycle) is the time interval between two identical states of the economic situation.

According to A.I. Popov, the economic cycle is the ups and downs of economic activity levels repeated over a number of years, related to each other by duration and intensity in the presence of a long-term trend towards economic growth.

Frolova T.A. writes in his book "Macroeconomics: Lecture Notes" [p. 105, 3] that the economic cycle - periodic fluctuations in the levels of employment, production and inflation.

Vechkanov G.S. and Vechkanova G.R. claim [p. 248, 2], which in the classical sense, the economic cycle includes four phases:

1. Crisis (recession, recession);

2. Depression (stagnation);

4. Rise (boom, peak).

Shchetinin A. And formulated the following definitions [c. 256, 6].

The recession phase (crisis) is a noticeable imbalance in social production. In this phase, production volumes are reduced, along with this, unemployment rises, which inevitably leads to a reduction in demand. Wages and incomes of enterprises are decreasing, but, due to the great need of producers for money to cover loans, the rate of interest on loans rises sharply. If the sale of goods becomes more complicated, then prices begin to decline, but this phenomenon is not necessary. Often the prices of goods and services rise. This phenomenon is especially characteristic of countries with economies in transition.

5. The phase of depression is the phase of stagnation. It begins when the economy reaches critical points of decline, descends to the "bottom". Production does not grow, but it does not decrease in its volumes either, it is in this phase that the most unloaded production is reached, and unemployment reaches its maximum. The number of bankruptcies reaches the highest level. At this phase of social production, fixed capital is renewed. Entrepreneurs are trying to adapt to low prices and reduced demand, looking for opportunities to carry out production and, under such conditions, make a profit. And this can be achieved, as a rule, through the use of new equipment and new technologies, a progressive organization of labor.

6. The recovery phase begins with some increase in production and a corresponding reduction in unemployment. Household incomes and entrepreneurial incomes are starting to rise. The demand for consumer goods and resources is increasing, and prices are rising along with it. Unemployment is gradually decreasing.

7. The recovery phase begins when production has already reached pre-crisis levels. At this stage of development, production capacities are rapidly increasing, the scale of production is growing, and unemployment is sharply decreasing. The incomes of the population and the profits of entrepreneurs are noticeably increasing. Growing aggregate demand sets the stage for the next cycle if there is a significant reduction in aggregate demand.

Along with the four-phase cycle considered in the economic literature, the cycle is often characterized by its two-phase structure. In this case, the decline phase and the growth phase are distinguished. The points that graphically display the peaks of growth or a low level of decline are called maximum and minimum points, respectively.

Let's display two- and four-phase approaches to the cycle in fig. 1.1 and fig. 1.2

Rice. 1.1

Rice. 1.2

Since the impact of business cycles on the economy is large and widespread, and business downturns can have very severe consequences, economists are trying to determine the causes of their occurrence.

Frolova T.A. notes [p. 107, 3] that the causes of cyclicity are: periodic depletion of autonomous investments, weakening of the multiplier effect, fluctuations in the volume of money supply, renewal of basic capital goods, etc.

The causes of cycles are divided into external (exogenous) and internal (endogenous).

External causes include: natural features - an 11-year cycle of solar activity; aggravation and weakening of the class struggle; world wars; mass migration of the population, caused either by the opening of new spaces, or by overpopulation; great scientific discoveries; psychological factors (for example, the effect of the "crowd" - everyone is either strenuously organizing a business, expanding production, investing savings - or panicking and sharply curtailing entrepreneurial activity).

Internal causes of cycles:

1. Accelerator effect. The increase in demand for consumer goods causes a significant increase in production (the expansion and emergence of new enterprises for the production of cars, televisions, the construction industry, etc.). In this case, there is a time delay of producers to change consumer demand. The demand for consumer goods has already been satisfied, but the industry continues to produce (the effect of the "heated furnace"). Large-scale production cannot immediately respond to changes in demand. Accelerator (V) is expressed by a coefficient.

2. Disproportions in the structure of the national economy. The natural aging of some industries, the development of new industries, the peculiarities of the development of production by region - all this causes disproportions between supply and demand for the range of goods.

3. The impact of scientific and technical progress on the renewal of active fixed capital, scientific and technical progress leads to obsolescence of technological equipment, and the real replacement of equipment is late.

4. "Underconsumption" of the population, causing demand to lag behind supply due to increased savings. The root cause lies in the uneven distribution of income.

5. Mistakes of the government in the state fiscal policy, failures in the monetary economy or the banking sector. In fact, all these reasons can be reduced to one. The main reason for economic cycles is the discrepancy between aggregate demand and aggregate supply, between aggregate spending and aggregate production.

Zaritsky A.V. notes [p. 133, 5] that the main types of cycles are:

1. Industrial or business cycle, lasting 7 - 12 years. Fluctuations are based on the periodicity of the investment process, which initiates fluctuations in GDP, prices, employment.

2. Kitchin cycles or stock cycles, lasting 2-4 years. The fluctuations are based on the change in the value of stocks.

3. "Construction cycles" or Blacksmith cycles (20 - 25 years). They are connected in the period of renovation of buildings, structures, fixed assets and housing.

4. Long-term fluctuations (Kondratiev cycles) - a theoretical long-term cycle in which the movement from boom to boom to recession takes 30-50 years and on which economic cycles with a shorter period are superimposed. Explanations for these long waves of economic activity are usually based on the fact that major technological innovations (such as the invention of the automobile) provide a boost to economic activity for several decades until their impact fades.

5. Fluctuations in the demographic environment. Democratic pits, etc.

In the temporal aspect, under the influence of well-known systematizers J. Schumpeter and E. Hansen, three types of cycles are distinguished in the economic literature: short-term Kitchin cycles (2-4 years), medium-term Zhuglyar cycles (8-10 years), long waves of N.D. Kondratiev (50 years and more) [ 256 p., 4 ]

We also note the methodological basis of N.D. Kondratiev, who was the first economist who made an attempt to substantiate the long waves of the conjuncture based on the study of technical and economic factors - the dynamics of commodity prices, interest rates, nominal wages, foreign trade turnover, coal mining and consumption, iron and lead production. He identified 2.5 cycles in 140 years [ 178 p., 1 ]: The first cycle. Upward wave - from 1787-1792 to 1810-1817; downward wave - from 1810-1817. to 1844-1851 Second cycle. Upward wave - from 1844-1851 to 1870-1875; downward wave - from 1870-1875 to 1890-1896 Third cycle. Upward wave - from 1890-1896 to 1914-1920

Zaritsky A.V. notes [p. 135, 5] that economic cycles are characterized by the following important indicators:

1. oscillation amplitude - the maximum difference between the largest and smallest value of the indicator during the cycle (Fig. 1.3, distance CD);

2. duration of the cycle - the period of time during which one complete fluctuation of business activity takes place (Fig. 1.3, distance AB).

1. short cycles associated with the restoration of economic equilibrium in the consumer market, with fluctuations in wholesale prices and changes in the stocks of firms. Their duration is 2-4 years;

2. medium cycles associated with changes in the investment demand of enterprises, with the long-term accumulation of production factors and the improvement of technologies. Their duration is 10-15 years;

3. long cycles (waves) associated with discoveries or important technical innovations and their distribution. Their duration is 40-60 years.

2. Analysis of economic cycles: duration, amplitude and varieties

Economic growth and business cycles (business cycles) are one of the most urgent and intensively developed problems of economic theory and practice.

Based on the available data from the “Supplement to the Russian Statistical Yearbook 2014”, we will build a graph “Economic cycles”.

Table 1 - Primary and calculated indicators of the "Economic cycle"

	Gross domestic product, billion rubles (1992-1997 - trillion rubles) at current prices	Consumer price indices for goods and services1) for the Russian Federation in 1991-2015.	Gross domestic product, billion rubles (1992-1997 - trillion rubles) - real in comparable prices	GDP growth rate

Let's build the "Business Cycle" using Microsoft Excel 2010.

"Business cycle" is presented in Figure 2.1

Rice. 2.1

According to the data obtained, we can say that in 2008 - 2011 there is a "crisis".

The main indicator of the phases of the cycle is the indicator of the rate of economic growth or growth (rate of growth - g), which is expressed as a percentage and is calculated by the formulas:

G \u003d Yt / Yt-1 * 100%,

g = [(Yt - Yt-1) / Yt-1]*100%= 100% - g,

where G is the economic growth rate, g is the economic growth rate, Yt is the real GDP of the current year, Yt-1 is the real GDP of the previous year. This indicator characterizes the percentage change in real GDP (total output) in each next year compared to the previous one, i.e. actually not the growth rate (growth), but the rate of GDP growth. If this value is positive, then the economy is in the upswing phase, and if it is negative, then it is in the downswing phase. This indicator is calculated for one year and characterizes the rate of economic development, i.e. short-term (annual) fluctuations in actual GDP.

According to the calculation made in Table 1 “Primary and Estimated Indicators of the “Economic Cycle””, a negative economic growth rate is observed in 2009, which confirms the chart we have obtained (Fig. 2.1).

During the period we are analyzing, we can distinguish the following phases of the economic cycle. We got the following results. A four-phase approach was used.

· 2005 - phase "Boom";

· 2009 - phase "Crisis";

The obtained data can be explained as follows. After the events of 2000-2006. revenues to the budget from oil extraction and export increased significantly due to the steady growth of world oil prices. According to government experts, it was expected that 2008 would be the end of the transition period. The economy showed high growth rates, Russia's gold and foreign exchange reserves increased significantly, the country's external public debt was reduced to an unprecedented low level, sovereign wealth funds reached astronomical levels. It seemed that the Russian economy had developed strongly and was inaccessible to world crises. However, the global crisis affected Russia at the end of the summer of 2008, and the “oil and gas pipes” turned out to be the channel for the global crisis to enter the domestic economy, while internal factors only exacerbated the course and manifestations of this crisis. Demand for oil (and later for gas and metals) fell and global oil prices dropped fourfold, and the Russian economy was hit hard. Thus, there were no internal causes for the current economic crisis in Russia, and so far there is no need to talk about the overproduction of industrial capital in our economy.

Crisis of 2008-2011 shows that Russia has finally turned into a country of peripheral dependent capitalism, despite a number of lingering signs of a great power. For this reason, the anti-crisis measures of the Russian government are similar to the monetary methods used in developed countries, which, in turn, hides the true nature of our crisis, makes it look like a "Western" one.

It is not possible to say the duration of the economic cycle according to our data, since the economic cycle is currently ongoing.

The amplitude is 55484.03 (38648.76 + 16835.27).

Let's compare the data obtained with Russian scientists dealing with issues in this area.

Tyapkina M. F. (Ph.D. in Economics, Associate Professor of the Department of Finance and Analysis) distinguishes the following phases:

· 2000 - 2001, 2006 - 2008, 2013 - "Recession" phase;

· 2002, 2009 - Phase "Revitalization";

· 2003 - 2004 , 2010 - 2011 - Phase "Growth";

· 2005, 2012 - Phase "Boom".

With M. F. Tyapkina, only the “Boom” phase (2005) converged with us.

Grachev G.A. (Candidate of Physical and Mathematical Sciences, Leading Researcher at the Research Institute of Physics) outlined the following time periods of the phases of the economic cycle:

· 1998 - 2005 - Phase "Growth";

· 2005 - Phase "Boom";

· 2006 - 2008 - Phase "Recession";

· 2009 - Phase "Crisis";

· 2010 - 2015 - Growth phase.

The schedule of the "Business cycle", which was displayed by G. A. Grachev, is presented in fig. 2.2.

Rice. 2.2

With G. A. Grachev, the phase of the economic cycle almost all coincided.

Conclusion

economic business cycle

In accordance with the goals set at the beginning of the work, let's summarize the research of the control work.

The economy does not develop in a straight line (trend) of economic growth, but through constant deviations from the trend, through recessions and upswings. The economy develops cyclically, experiencing periodic ups and downs in the economy, fluctuations in business activity.

Business cycle - fluctuations in business activity, periodic ups and downs in the economy.

The economic cycle includes four phases:

1. Crisis (recession, recession);

2. Depression (stagnation);

3. Recovery (expansion) or recovery phase;

4. Rise (boom, peak).

Economic literature distinguishes three types of cycles: short-term Kitchin cycles (2-4 years), medium-term Zhuglyar cycles (8-10 years), long waves of N.D. Kondratiev (50 years or more).

In the course of our study of this topic, an analysis of economic cycles was carried out. An attempt was made to isolate the phase of the economic cycle. We got the following results. A four-phase approach was used.

· 2000-2004 - "Rise" phase

· 2005 - phase "Boom";

· 2006-2008 - phase "Recession";

· 2009 - phase "Crisis";

· 2010 - 2013 - - "Rise" phase.

Bibliography

1. Kondratiev N.D. Problems of economic dynamics. - M., 1989. - 412 p.

2. Macroeconomics. G. S. Vechkanov, G. R. Vechkanova. St. Petersburg: Piter, 2006. - 544 p.

3. Frolova T. A., Economic theory: lecture notes. Tagonrog: TTI SFU, 2011

4. Economics: Textbook / Ed. A.S. Bulatov. - M., 2005. - 734 p.

5. Economic theory. A. E. Zaretsky. St. Petersburg: Owl, 2011. - 160 p.

11.2. Unemployment, its forms, causes, consequences.

11.3. Inflation, its types and consequences. Stagflation.

11.4. Relationship between unemployment and inflation. Phillips curve.

Okun's law.

11.1. Economic cycles. business cycle. business model

the Hicks-Frisch cycle.

In the previous lecture, we considered the system of national accounts, which is a system of tools for analyzing the state and dynamics of the national economy. Real macroeconomic variables (GDP, NI, etc.) increase with the growth of the scale of the national economy. But their change is not straightforward. The economy is characterized by instability. It can have a shock, difficult to predict nature and be caused more by exogenous factors (natural, political disasters). But it can be in the nature of regular fluctuations, since the economy, striving to achieve equilibrium, overcomes on its way various kinds of disproportions caused by endogenous factors. Disproportions have different degrees of intensity, which is manifested in the dynamics of micro- and macroeconomic indicators.

To micro-indicators that are subject to change, include the volume and dynamics of market supply and demand, securities rates, stock indices, the level and dynamics of wages, the number and volume of business transactions, their dynamics and frequency, the degree of workload of equipment and staff employment.

At the macro level, the volume and dynamics of GDP, aggregate demand, aggregate supply, price level, investment volume, net exports, etc. are subject to fluctuations. There are also changes in the structure of aggregate consumption of the population (the dynamics and share of demand for essential goods, durables and luxury). Macroeconomic variables do not change randomly, but in accordance with certain patterns: growth rates first increase, then slow down to zero, after which they become negative. A decline is followed by a new rise. The regularity of such fluctuations testifies to the cyclic nature of economic development. The branch of economics that studies these fluctuations is the theory of economic cycles, which allows one to study economic dynamics and explain the causes of fluctuations in economic activity in the national economy over time.

Business cycle- periodic fluctuations in the levels of economic activity: output, employment, price levels.

A business cycle is commonly understood as a sequence of recurring alternative phases. Each of the phases creates the conditions for the onset of the next, which leads to the reproduction of the cycle. Today, many economists recognize the existence of a whole system of economic cycles. The main criteria for distinguishing their types are: 1) cycle time, 2) manifestation mechanisms, 3) reasons for existence. Moreover, cycles of different duration are superimposed on each other, modifying the manifestations of each other. Allocate large economic cycles (40-60 years), medium or business (4-8 years), short (2-4 years).

The most studied today is the so-called business cycle, graphically presented in Figure 11.1.

It includes four phases: rise (expansion), peak, decline (recession), bottom (depression). At the same time, the economy moves from a state of underemployment (bottom) to full employment (peak). Thus, the business cycle is the time interval between two identical states of the economic environment. In the upswing phase, investments, aggregate incomes, aggregate demand and aggregate supply, and employment grow.

business cycle – periodic fluctuations in economic conditions in a market economy, measured by the time interval between two successive identical phases.

The growth rates of these indicators, approaching the peak phase, slow down. Here, the highest employment in this cycle, the level of total income, demand, and investment are achieved. As employment increases, wages rise and the general price level rises. Rising prices outpace wage growth, reducing demand for durable goods. The economy begins to move from full employment to part-time (decline phase). When the emerging downward trend becomes stable, the population begins to adapt to new conditions: aggregate demand begins to decline faster than aggregate supply, which accelerates the recession and the approach of the economy to the bottom point. A fall in aggregate demand causes a fall in the general price level. A phase of depression begins, characterized by zero rates of economic decline, low levels of employment, aggregate demand, aggregate supply, and investment. During this period, the economy is cleared of inefficient decisions, inefficient entrepreneurs, and competition intensifies. In an effort to reduce costs, firms begin to upgrade equipment, which causes a revival of the economy, turning into a boom.

The nature of each particular business cycle also depends on the interaction with other types of cycles, since cycles of shorter duration are carried out against the backdrop of longer cycles. Thus, the Kondratiev cycles, characterized by two phases (an upward wave and a downward wave), determine the shape of the curve that demonstrates the business cycle. On the upward wave of the Kondratiev cycle, when the national economy is transitioning to its new technological base, the upswings are very intense and prolonged, while the downturns are less noticeable. This is explained by the fact that each new rise in the business cycle is initiated by the development of a new technological base of the national economy. The downward wave of the Kondratiev cycle is characterized by long and deep downturns in the business cycle, a reduction in its duration.

Kondratiev cycle- a theoretical long-term cycle, in which the movement from boom to recession takes about 30 years, and on which business cycles with a shorter period are superimposed.

Examples are the Great Depression (the crisis of 1929-1933) and the crises of 1969-70, 1974-75, 1980-82, which occurred on the downward wave of the fourth Kondratiev cycle. The reasons for this are the gradual exhaustion of the potential of the already established technological base of the economy, as well as monetary dynamics.

Among economists, there is still no consensus on the reasons for the cyclical nature of the economy. First of all, the approaches to the problem themselves differ. So, D. Ricardo and J.-B. Say (late 18th – early 19th centuries), convinced of the ability of the market economy to self-regulate, denied the very possibility of nationwide economic crises. Others recognize the possibility of cyclicity, but see the sources of its causes in different ways. Some economists proceed from the fact that the cyclical nature of the economy is generated by external factors in relation to the economy, such as fluctuations in solar activity (S. and E. Jevons), cyclical weather fluctuations (S. Moore), changes in psychology (V. Pareto, A. Pigou ), wars and the activation of the state (R. Frisch and others), cyclicality in the development of scientific and technological progress (J. Schumpeter, J. Hicks). Thus, in the Hicks-Hansen model, cyclical fluctuations are explained by the interaction of commodity and money markets, when, for example, autonomous investments arise in the economy under the influence of scientific and technological progress. To stimulate the mass development of advanced technologies, the state usually helps to improve the investment climate. Then potential investors, optimistically evaluating economic prospects and focusing on the existing interest rate, increase the size of investments, using savings stocks for this. As a result, there will be an expansion of production volumes, followed by an increase in total income. The economy is on the rise. All this will have an impact on the money market. If the money supply does not change (the state does not issue money), and part of the increase in total income turns into additional demand for money (for a loan), then the interest rate will increase. An increase in the interest rate will have a negative impact on the commodity market. Assessing the future rate of return in the face of rising credit prices, manufacturers will start curtailing investment demand. As a result, the growth of investment, production, total income, and hence savings slows down.

The Hicks-Frisch model is also interesting (Fig. 11.2.).

According to it, cyclical fluctuations are caused by autonomous investments, i.e. investments in new products, new technologies, etc. Autonomous investments do not depend on income growth, but rather cause it. An increase in income leads to an increase in investment, depending on the amount of income: there is a multiplier effect - an accelerator. This effect will be discussed in more detail in the next lecture. With a constant marginal propensity to save (the ratio of the increase in savings to the increase in income), investment will increase cumulatively, which means an upturn in the economy. But economic growth cannot occur indefinitely. The barrier to growth is full employment (line AA). Achieving full employment means there is a high demand for labor, and, consequently, an increase in the wage rate. Since the economy has reached a state of full employment, further growth in aggregate demand does not lead to an increase in the national product. As a result, wage growth rates begin to outpace the growth rate of the national product, which becomes a factor of inflation. Rising inflation has a negative impact on the state of the economy: the business activity of economic entities is falling, the growth of real incomes is slowing down, and then they fall. Now the accelerator (the ratio of investment growth to income growth in the previous period) works in the opposite direction. If on the rise the multiplicative-acceleration mechanism "accelerated" the economy, then on the decline it "rolls up" it. This continues until the economy "bumps" into the BB line - negative net investment (when net investment is insufficient even to replace depreciated fixed capital). Competition is intensifying, the desire to reduce production costs encourage financially stable firms to start renewing fixed capital, which ensures an upturn in the economy.

The Hicks-Hansen, Hicks-Frisch models are neo-Keynesian. A different interpretation of the nature of business cycles is given by modern schools of macroeconomics.

Monetarists explain the cyclical fluctuations of the economy by changes in the money supply: the money supply reaches its maximum value and begins to decline even before reaching the highest point of the business cycle, while the minimum value of the money supply and the beginning of its growth falls on the period of recession, moreover, before reaching the bottom of the business cycle. According to M. Friedman, the usual recession developed into a catastrophic crisis of 1929-1933 as a result of the erroneous actions of the US Federal Reserve System, which sharply "compressed" the money supply a few months before the so-called "Black Tuesday" on October 29, 1929. According to monetarism, a more consistent monetary policy of the state will lead to a smoothing of the business cycle.

In contrast to monetarism, the theory of rational expectations (new classical school) proceeds from the fact that money is neutral not only in the long run, according to M. Friedman, but also in the short run. Fluctuations in the money supply are caused by fluctuations in GDP, and not vice versa. Fluctuations in GDP are the result of changes in aggregate supply. According to this theory, cyclical fluctuations are explained by the limited information and misinterpretation of price signals by entrepreneurs.

So, in economic theory today there are different approaches to understanding the cyclical nature of the economy. But the upward trend in economic development (the trend - the potential GDP growth trend in Fig. 11.1 connects the midpoints of the phases of the cycle corresponding to full employment) indicates that although the cyclical nature of the economy is an evil, it is a necessary evil.

Cyclicity is characteristic of a mature market economy. The crisis of the Russian economy in the 1990s is not cyclical, but transformational. With the completion of the transition from a planned economy to a market economy, the cyclicality characteristic of the latter will manifest itself.