Climate change in the world history. Why has the climate changed. Extreme weather

Climate is the average weather value for several decades, typical for a certain region. Weather differs from climate mainly in that it characterizes the short-term state of the atmosphere in a particular locality. Interestingly, some characteristics can describe both weather and climate, such as barometric pressure, wind speed, and humidity.

The climate, like the weather, changes, but much more slowly, it takes thousands of years, and sometimes entire eras, to change the climate. Climate change is fueled by uneven amounts of heat received from the sun. Man also plays an important role in shaping the climate. Rapid industrial activity on Earth, the use of fossil fuels, the development of transport, all these are the causes of climate change. The fact is that the atmosphere accumulates a lot of carbon dioxide, which contributes to additional heating of the planet.

Now scientists consider Earth's climate change as a global problem of mankind. In addition to the fact that climate change moves naturally, rash human activities add additional problems.

Climate change is not only about rising temperatures, this process has a much more global significance. At this moment, all geosystems are being rebuilt on Earth, and the increase in temperature is only a small echo of all the consequences. Researchers have noted a rise in the water level on the planet, glaciers are melting, and precipitation is becoming irregular. Increasingly, natural disasters occur and more and more dangerous diseases spread. All this poses a danger not only to the natural system and the world economy, but also to the existence of man. Over the past hundred years, the temperature in the Earth's atmosphere has risen by two-thirds of a degree and it continues to rise.

Therefore, it is worth talking not only about global warming, but also about all possible scenarios of climate change. Now the Earth is in an interglacial period, but no one knows for sure how long this period can last. Scientists are also considering such an option as glaciation. This can happen under the influence of astronomical factors, if:

• The earth's axis will change its tilt.
• The Earth will deviate from its orbit, moving away from the Sun.
• Uneven flow of solar heat to the surface of the planet.

Geological factors are also considered, such as the activity of volcanoes, mountain formations, and the movement of continental plates.

The variability of the World Ocean is the main indicator of changes in the overall climate picture. Also, climate change can occur due to the interaction of water and the atmospheric layer. With the help of water, heat circulates throughout the planet, which can have a strong impact on climatic zones.

The earth has a phenomenal property - climate memory. Changes in climate are not only the consequences of its changes, under the influence of certain factors, but also the whole history of its changes. It is possible to trace this with a simple example: when a drought lasts for several years in an area, water bodies begin to dry out, and the size of the desert increases. As time goes on, the rainfall in this place decreases. This is an indicator that not only nature is changing under the influence of climate change, but nature has an impact on the climate through its changes.

Drivers of climate change

Under the influence of changes in the atmosphere and the surface of the planet, the climate is changing. There are two types of factors: anthropogenic and non-anthropogenic.

So what contributes to climate change when it comes to non-anthropogenic conditions:

• Tectonics of lithospheric plates. It is no secret that for quite a long time, the continents move with the help of tectonic plates. Thus, new seas and oceans are created, mountains collapse or grow: a surface is created, where the climate is subsequently formed. As the facts showed, the past ice age extended the movement of two plates, which collided and formed the Isthmus of Panama, which prevented the mixing of the waters of the two oceans, which is why the glaciation period lasted longer.
• solar radiation. Without the light of the Sun, it would be impossible to form conditions suitable for life, and of course, the celestial body affects all processes occurring on a living planet, including the formation of climatic conditions. In the aspect of a very long period, now the Sun has become brighter and gives much more heat. Such a long process also affects the Earth. According to the researchers, at an early stage in the formation of life on Earth, the Sun was so inactive that the water was in a state of ice. Even in short time periods, one can trace the change in the activity of the luminary. For example, at the beginning of the last century, warming was noticed, which is associated with short-term activity of the Sun. The influence of a star on the Earth's atmosphere is not fully understood, but it is not related to the changes that occur on the Fiery Planet itself.
• Milankovitch cycles. Changes in the trajectory of the earth's orbit affect the state of the climate, and are very similar in their actions to solar forcing. The change in the planet's flight path is a consequence of the uneven distribution of sunlight across the globe. This phenomenon is called the Milankovitch cycle. Which is a consequence of the connection of the Earth and the Moon with other planets, so that they can be calculated with all the details. The result of such cycles can be considered a change in the size of the Sahara desert in small periods of time.
• Volcanism. As scientific studies show, one powerful volcanic eruption is followed by a cooling in the area for several years. Despite the rarity of eruptions, volcanoes have a significant impact on the features of climate formation for many thousands of years and affect the extinction or preservation of entire species. Initially, it was thought that the drop in temperature after the eruption was due to volcanic dust, as it could prevent solar radiation from reaching Earth's atmosphere. But, as it turned out, the bulk of the dust dissipates within six months.

All of these non-anthropogenic factors explain how and why natural climate change occurs.

Anthropogenic factors influencing climate change

Anthropogenic factors are the consequences of human activities that have an impact on the environment, and hence on climatic conditions too. For many years there has been a debate about how much impact human actions have on the atmosphere. But the main problem cannot be denied, in view of its obviousness. Due to the consumption of a huge amount of combustible substances as fuel, a large amount of carbon dioxide accumulates in the atmosphere. Also the cement industry, agriculture, livestock breeding, deforestation, all this affects climate change to one degree or another, and leads mainly to global warming.

Global warming is an increase in the average temperature value, which entails a change in climatic zones, and this, in turn, can adversely affect the continued existence of favorable conditions for humanity.

Causes of global warming

With reliable accuracy, no expert can say what exactly causes global warming in the first place. However, most scientists are on the side of the version where the main cause of warming is man, or rather, his booming industry. There is strong evidence that, if before the industrial boom, the increase in the average temperature on Earth by one tenth of a degree occurred once every millennium, now the temperature level is growing inexorably over several decades. Such a rapid increase in indicators will lead to unthinkable consequences.

An increase in the average temperature on Earth will lead to a change in climatic zones, which will lead to the melting of glaciers at the North and South Poles, and because of this, the water level of the World Ocean will rise. Global warming is already affecting the animal world. Some species die, some change their usual habitats. Also, this cataclysm can lead to an increase in the number of infectious diseases, allergies and asthma, since high temperatures have a beneficial effect on the spread of harmful bacteria. Global warming will negatively affect many sectors of human life, primarily the economy, tourism and agriculture, and will make many countries uninhabitable.

To prevent global warming, it is necessary to unite all countries. Obviously, an excellent solution to the problem will be the economical use of energy resources and a limited amount of emissions of gases into the atmosphere. The use of inexhaustible natural resources, such as solar panels, wind or water power plants, is actively discussed.

Anthropogenic includes not only global warming, but also climate change in general, as a result of excessive deforestation, agriculture and the use of the Earth's natural resources.

Interaction of factors

The influence of anthropogenic and non-anthropogenic factors on the climate, together, is measured by the generally accepted value of W / m 2, this is the level of radiation heating of the atmospheric layer. The total balance of radiation in the atmosphere is about 3 W / m 2, human impact from this figure is no more than 1%, and an increase in greenhouse gases by 2% (see).

The cycle of climate change

As early as the end of the 19th century, Russian scientists put forward the idea that warm and cold climates alternate in a time interval of 30-40 years. An example of a change in the level of the World Ocean is given as evidence.

Climate skepticism

Despite the vast amount of evidence that global warming is around the corner, there are skeptics who reject it. The mood of skepticism is present in many countries of the world, which prevents making important political decisions to prevent global warming, which puts the existence of life on Earth in great danger, because no one can fully say how catastrophic consequences warming will bring with it.

Climate changes are long-term (over 10 years) directed or rhythmic changes in climatic conditions on the Earth as a whole or in its large regions. Climate change is caused by dynamic processes on the Earth, external influences such as fluctuations in the intensity of solar radiation, and, to a large extent, human activities. According to the World Meteorological Organization, in recent decades, the average annual temperature has been increasing abnormally rapidly.
The problem of global climate change is one of the key environmental problems of the Earth. The cause of climate change is the dynamic processes on the planet, external influences such as fluctuations in the intensity of solar radiation, and, to a large extent, human activities.

What evidence is there for climate change?

They are well known to everyone (this is already noticeable even without instruments) - an increase in the average global temperature (milder winters, hotter and drier summer months), melting glaciers and rising sea levels, as well as increasingly frequent and more destructive typhoons and hurricanes, floods in Europe and droughts in Australia… (see also “5 Climate Prophecies That Came True”). And in some places, for example, in Antarctica, there is a cooling.
If the climate has changed before, why is it now a problem?

Indeed, the climate of our planet is constantly changing. Everyone knows about ice ages (they are small and large), with a global flood, etc. According to geological data, the average world temperature in different geological periods ranged from +7 to +27 degrees Celsius. Now the average temperature on Earth is about + 14 ° C and is still quite far from the maximum. So, what are scientists, heads of state and the public concerned about? In short, the concern is that in addition to the natural causes of climate change, which have always been, another factor is added - anthropogenic (the result of human activity), the impact of which on climate change, according to some researchers, is becoming stronger every year.

What are the causes of climate change?

The main driver of climate is the Sun. For example, uneven heating of the earth's surface (stronger at the equator) is one of the main causes of winds and ocean currents, and periods of increased solar activity are accompanied by warming and magnetic storms.
In addition, climate is affected by changes in the Earth's orbit, its magnetic field, the size of continents and oceans, and volcanic eruptions. All of these are natural causes of climate change. Until recently, they, and only they, determined climate change, including the beginning and end of long-term climatic cycles such as ice ages. Solar and volcanic activity can explain half of the temperature changes prior to 1950 (solar activity leads to an increase in temperature, and volcanic activity leads to a decrease).
Recently, one more factor has been added to natural factors - anthropogenic, i.e. caused by human activity. The main anthropogenic impact is the increase in the greenhouse effect, the impact of which on climate change in the last two centuries is 8 times higher than the impact of changes in solar activity.

What is the greenhouse effect?

The greenhouse effect is the delay by the Earth's atmosphere of the planet's thermal radiation. The greenhouse effect was observed by any of us: in greenhouses or greenhouses the temperature is always higher than outside. The same is observed on the scale of the Earth: solar energy, passing through the atmosphere, heats the Earth's surface, but the thermal energy emitted by the Earth cannot escape back into space, since the Earth's atmosphere delays it, acting like polyethylene in a greenhouse: it transmits short light waves from the Sun to the Earth and delays long thermal (or infrared) waves emitted by the Earth's surface. There is a greenhouse effect. The greenhouse effect occurs due to the presence of gases in the Earth's atmosphere that have the ability to delay long waves. They are called "greenhouse" or "greenhouse" gases.
Greenhouse gases have been present in the atmosphere in small amounts (about 0.1%) since its formation. This amount was enough to maintain the Earth's heat balance at a level suitable for life due to the greenhouse effect. This is the so-called natural greenhouse effect, if it were not for it, the average temperature of the Earth's surface would be 30 ° C not +14°C, as it is now, but -17°C.
The natural greenhouse effect does not threaten either the Earth or humanity, since the total amount of greenhouse gases was maintained at the same level due to the cycle of nature, moreover, we owe our lives to it.

But an increase in the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere leads to an increase in the greenhouse effect and a violation of the heat balance of the Earth. This is exactly what happened in the last two centuries of the development of civilization. Coal-fired power plants, car exhausts, factory chimneys and other man-made sources of pollution emit about 22 billion tons of greenhouse gases per year into the atmosphere.

Climatic changes in Russia in the XX century. generally in line with global trends. For example, the 1990s also turned out to be the hottest for a very long time. and the beginning of the 21st century, especially in Western and Central Siberia.
An interesting forecast of climatic changes expected in the territory of the former USSR until the middle of the 21st century was published by A. A. Velichko. You can get acquainted with this forecast, prepared by the laboratory of evolutionary geography of the Institute of Geography of the Russian Academy of Sciences, using the maps of the consequences of global warming and the levels of destabilization of geosystems on the territory of the former USSR compiled by the same laboratory.

Other forecasts have also been published. According to them, climate warming will generally have a positive effect on the North of Russia, where living conditions will change for the better. However, the movement of the southern border of permafrost to the north will simultaneously create a number of problems, since it can lead to the destruction of buildings, roads, pipelines built taking into account the current distribution of frozen soils. In the southern regions of the country, the situation will be more complicated. For example, dry steppes may become even more arid. And this is not to mention the flooding of many port cities and coastal lowlands.

The geological age of our planet is approximately 4.5 billion years. During this period, the Earth has changed dramatically. The composition of the atmosphere, the mass of the planet itself, the climate - at the beginning of existence, everything was completely different. The red-hot ball very slowly became the way we are used to seeing it now. Tectonic plates collided, forming ever new mountain systems. On a gradually cooling planet, seas and oceans formed. Continents appeared and disappeared, their shape and size changed. The earth began to rotate more slowly. The first plants appeared, and then life itself. Accordingly, over the past billions of years, cardinal changes have taken place on the planet in moisture circulation, heat circulation and atmospheric composition. Climate change has occurred throughout the existence of the Earth.

Holocene Epoch

The Holocene is part of the Quaternary period. In other words, this is an era that began about 12 thousand years ago and continues to the present. The Holocene began with the end of the ice age, and since then climate change on the planet has been moving towards global warming. This era is often referred to as the interglacial, since there have already been several ice ages in the entire climatic history of the planet.

The last global cooling occurred approximately 110,000 years ago. About 14 thousand years ago, warming began, gradually covering the entire planet. The glaciers that at that time covered most of the Northern Hemisphere began to melt and collapse. Naturally, all this did not happen overnight. For a very long period, the planet was shaken by strong temperature fluctuations, glaciers either advanced or retreated again. All this also affected the level of the World Ocean.

Holocene periods

During numerous studies, scientists decided to divide the Holocene into several time periods depending on the climate. Approximately 12-10 thousand years ago, the ice sheets disappeared, the post-glacial period began. In Europe, the tundra began to disappear, it was replaced by birch, pine and taiga forests. This time is called the Arctic and Subarctic period.

Then came the boreal era. The taiga pushed the tundra further north. Broad-leaved forests appeared in Southern Europe. During this time, the climate was predominantly cool and dry.

Approximately 6 thousand years ago, the Atlantean era began, during which the air became warm and humid, much warmer than today. This period of time is considered the climatic optimum of the entire Holocene. Half was covered with birch forests. Europe abounded in a great variety of heat-loving plants. At the same time, the extent of temperate forests was much further north. Dark coniferous forests grew on the shores of the Barents Sea, and the taiga reached Cape Chelyuskin. On the site of the modern Sahara there was a savannah, and the water level in Lake Chad was 40 meters higher than the modern one.

Then climate change happened again. A cold snap set in, lasting about 2,000 years. This period of time is called subboreal. Mountain ranges in Alaska, Iceland, in the Alps acquired glaciers. Landscape zones have shifted closer to the equator.

Approximately 2.5 thousand years ago, the last period of the modern Holocene, the Subatlantic, began. The climate of this era became cooler and wetter. Peat bogs began to appear, the tundra gradually began to press on the forests, and the forests on the steppes. Around the 14th century, the cooling of the climate began, leading to the Little Ice Age, which lasted until the middle of the 19th century. At this time, invasions of glaciers were recorded in the mountain ranges of Northern Europe, Iceland, Alaska and the Andes. In different parts of the world, the climate has not changed synchronously. The causes of the onset of the Little Ice Age are still unknown. According to scientists, the climate could change due to increases in volcanic eruptions and a decrease in the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.

Start of meteorological observations

The first appeared at the end of the 18th century. Since that time, constant monitoring of climatic fluctuations has been carried out. It can be reliably stated that the warming that began after the Little Ice Age continues to the present.

Since the end of the 19th century, an increase in the average global temperature of the planet has been recorded. In the middle of the 20th century there was a slight cooling, which did not affect the climate in general. Since the mid-1970s, it has become warmer again. According to scientists, over the past century, the global temperature of the Earth has increased by 0.74 degrees. The largest increase in this indicator has been recorded in the last 30 years.

Climate change invariably affects the state of the oceans. An increase in global temperature leads to the expansion of water, and hence to an increase in its level. There are also changes in the distribution of precipitation, which, in turn, can affect the flow of rivers and glaciers.

According to observations, the level of the World Ocean over the past 100 years has risen by 5 cm. Scientists attribute climate warming to an increase in the concentration of carbon dioxide and a significant increase in the greenhouse effect.

climate-forming factors

Scientists have conducted many archaeological studies and came to the conclusion that the climate of the planet has changed dramatically more than once. Many hypotheses have been put forward in this regard. According to one of the opinions, if the distance between the Earth and the Sun remains the same, as well as the speed of rotation of the planet and the angle of the axis, then the climate will remain stable.

External drivers of climate change:

1. The change in the solar radiation leads to the transformation of solar radiation fluxes.
2. Movements of tectonic plates affect land orography as well as ocean levels and circulation.
3. The gas composition of the atmosphere, in particular the concentration of methane and carbon dioxide.
4. Change in the tilt of the Earth's axis of rotation.
5. Changes in the parameters of the planet's orbit with respect to the Sun.
6. Terrestrial and space catastrophes.

Human activity and its impact on climate

The causes of climate change are connected, among other things, with the fact that humanity has intervened in nature throughout its existence. Deforestation, plowing, etc. lead to transformations in the humidity and wind regimes.

When people make changes to the surrounding nature, draining swamps, creating artificial reservoirs, cutting down forests or planting new ones, building cities, etc., the microclimate changes. The forest strongly influences the wind regime, which determines how the snow cover will fall, how much the soil will freeze.

Green spaces in cities reduce the impact of solar radiation, increase air humidity, reduce the temperature difference in the daytime and evening, and reduce air dustiness.

If people cut down forests on the hills, then in the future this leads to a washout of the soil. Also, the decrease in the number of trees reduces the global temperature. However, this means an increase in the concentration of carbon dioxide in the air, which is not only not absorbed by trees, but is also additionally released during the decomposition of wood. All this compensates for the decrease in global temperature and leads to its increase.

Industry and its impact on the climate

The causes of climate change lie not only in general warming, but also in the activities of mankind. People have increased the concentration in the air of substances such as carbon dioxide, nitrous oxide, methane, tropospheric ozone, chlorofluorocarbons. All this ultimately leads to an increase in the greenhouse effect, and the consequences may be irreversible.

Every day, industrial plants emit many hazardous gases into the air. Transportation is used everywhere, polluting the atmosphere with its emissions. A lot of carbon dioxide is formed when oil and coal are burned. Even agriculture causes considerable damage to the atmosphere. Approximately 14% of all emissions come from this sector. This includes plowing fields, burning waste, burning the savannah, manure, fertilizers, animal husbandry, etc. The greenhouse effect helps maintain the temperature balance on the planet, but human activity enhances this effect at times. And this can lead to disaster.

Why should we be afraid of climate change?

97% of the world's climatologists are sure that everything has changed dramatically in the last 100 years. And the main problem of climate change is anthropogenic activity. It’s impossible to say for sure how serious this situation is, but there are many reasons for concern:

UN convention

The governments of most countries on the planet are seriously afraid of what the consequences of climate change could be. More than 20 years ago, an international treaty was created - the Framework Convention on Climate Change. All possible measures to prevent global warming are considered here. Now the convention has been ratified by 186 countries, including Russia. All participants are differentiated into 3 groups: industrial with economic development and developing countries.

The UN Convention on Climate Change is fighting to reduce the growth of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and further stabilize indicators. This can be achieved either by increasing the sink of greenhouse gases from the atmosphere, or by reducing their emissions. The first option requires a large number of young forests that will absorb carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, and the second option will be achieved if the consumption of fossil fuels is reduced. All ratified countries agree that the world is undergoing global climate change. The UN is ready to do everything possible to mitigate the consequences of the impending strike.

Many countries participating in the convention have come to the conclusion that joint projects and programs will be the most effective. Currently, there are more than 150 such projects. Officially, there are 9 such programs in Russia, and more than 40 unofficially.

At the end of 1997, the Convention on Climate Change signed the Kyoto Protocol, which stipulated that countries with economies in transition undertake obligations to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The protocol has been ratified by 35 countries.

Our country also took part in the implementation of this protocol. Climate change in Russia has doubled the number of natural disasters. Even if we take into account that boreal forests are located on the territory of the state, they cannot cope with all greenhouse gas emissions. It is necessary to improve and increase forest ecosystems, to carry out large-scale measures to reduce emissions from industrial enterprises.

Predictions of the effects of global warming

The essence of climate change in the last century is global warming. According to the worst forecasts, further irrational activities of mankind can increase the temperature of the Earth by 11 degrees. Climate change will be irreversible. The rotation of the planet will slow down, many species of animals and plants will die. The level of the World Ocean will rise so much that many islands and most of the coastal areas will be flooded. The Gulf Stream will change its course, leading to a new Little Ice Age in Europe. There will be widespread cataclysms, floods, tornadoes, hurricanes, droughts, tsunamis, etc. The melting of the ice of the Arctic and Antarctica will begin.

For humanity, the consequences will be catastrophic. In addition to the need to survive in conditions of strong natural anomalies, people will have many other problems. In particular, the number of cardiovascular diseases, respiratory diseases, psychological disorders will increase, outbreaks of epidemics will begin. There will be an acute shortage of food and drinking water.

What to do?

To avoid the effects of climate change, the first step is to reduce the level of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Humanity should switch to new energy sources, which should be low-carbohydrate and renewable. Sooner or later, this issue will be acute for the world community, since the resource currently used - mineral fuel - is non-renewable. Someday scientists will have to create new, more efficient technologies.

It is also necessary to reduce the level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, and only the restoration of forest areas can help with this.

It is required to apply maximum efforts to stabilize the global temperature on Earth. But even if this fails, humanity must try to achieve minimal effects of global warming.

Global warming and other irreversible changes in the environment are of concern to many scientists.

What threatens Russia with climate change? The shift in climatic zones, insect invasions, destructive natural disasters and crop failures are in the selection of RIA Novosti.

Climate change has led to the invasion of ticks in Russia

Climate change has led to a strong increase in the number and rapid spread of ticks in central Russia, the North, Siberia and the Far East, according to the World Wildlife Fund (WWF) Russia.

"More frequent than before, warm winters and springs lead to the fact that a greater percentage of ticks successfully overwinter, their numbers are growing, and they are spreading over an ever larger area. Climate change forecasts for the coming decades clearly show that trends will not change, which means that the ticks themselves will not crawl away and die, and the problem will only get worse," says Aleksey Kokorin, head of the Climate and Energy Program at WWF Russia, quoted by the fund.

According to WWF, in regions where ticks have always been, there are more of them. These are the Perm Territory, Vologda, Kostroma, Kirov and other regions, Siberia and the Far East. But it's worse that ticks have appeared where they are "not known". They spread to the north of the Arkhangelsk region, and the west, and even the south of Russia. If earlier only the two northernmost districts of the Moscow region, Taldomsky and Dmitrovsky, were considered dangerous for tick-borne encephalitis, now ticks have been seen in the middle part of the region and even in the south, WWF notes.

"The most dangerous months when ticks are most active are May and June, although outbreaks of activity occur at the end of summer. The most dangerous places are small forests of deciduous trees - young birch and aspen forests, edges and forest areas with tall grass. Conifers are much less dangerous forests, especially if there is little grass in them," the foundation emphasizes.

As ecologists add, the "infection" of the ticks themselves, which carry very serious diseases: encephalitis, Lyme disease (borreliosis), has not changed. As before, carriers of the most dangerous disease - encephalitis - are only 1-2 ticks out of a thousand. Other diseases - a few dozen out of a thousand. But the ticks themselves became larger and, most importantly, they appeared in new places.

The positive effect of climate change for the Russian Federation will be short-lived

The positive effects of climate change on Russian agriculture, which the head of the Ministry of Agriculture Nikolai Fedorov said earlier in an interview, are likely to be short-lived and may come to naught by 2020, the coordinator of the climate and energy program of the World Wildlife Fund told RIA Novosti (WWF) Russia Alexey Kokorin.

Agriculture Minister Nikolai Fedorov said in an interview on Wednesday that climate change and, in particular, warming will be in the interests of the country, since the permafrost area, which today accounts for about 60% of the territory of the Russian Federation, will shrink, and the area of ​​land suitable for farming agriculture, on the contrary, to increase.

According to Kokorin, the Institute of Agricultural Meteorology of Roshydromet in Obninsk has analyzed in sufficient detail possible climate change scenarios and their impact on the conditions for farming in the country for all macroregions of Russia.

“It turns out that, indeed, for some time there may be a so-called positive impact on conditional climatic productivity. But then, in some cases from 2020, in some cases from 2030, depending on the scenario, it still goes down.” - said Kokorin.

"That is, of course, some catastrophic things that are predicted, say, for Uzbekistan or for certain African countries, are not expected. Moreover, a small positive and short-term effect is expected - but here you should always make a reservation, firstly what period of time are we talking about, and secondly, that then it will still go, unfortunately, a minus," the expert added.

Kokorin recalled that one of the consequences of climate change will be an increase in the scale and frequency of dangerous weather events, which can cause very significant damage to farmers in a particular region. This means that it is necessary to improve the insurance system in agriculture, which, according to Kokorin, "on the one hand, is already working, on the other, it is still working with failures." In particular, it is necessary to establish interaction between agricultural producers, insurance companies and regional divisions of Roshydromet.

The temperature in winter in the Russian Federation by the middle of the century can rise by 2-5 degrees

The temperature in winter throughout Russia by the middle of the 21st century may increase by two to five degrees Celsius due to global climate change, warns the Ministry of Emergency Situations of the Russian Federation.

"The greatest warming will affect winter ... in the middle of the 21st century, an increase of 2-5 degrees is predicted throughout the country," the Antistichia Center's forecast for 2013 says. According to its experts, in most of the European territory of Russia and western Siberia, the increase in winter temperatures in the period up to 2015 may be one to two degrees.

"The increase in summer temperatures will be less pronounced and will amount to 1-3 degrees by the middle of the century," the document says.

As previously reported, the rate of warming in Russia over 100 years is one and a half to two times faster than in the whole world, and over the past decade, the rate of warming in the country has increased several times compared to the 20th century.

The climate in Russia has been warming almost twice as fast as in the whole world for a century.

The rate of warming in Russia over 100 years due to global climate change is one and a half to two times faster than in the whole world, warns the Ministry of Emergency Situations of the Russian Federation.

"Over the past 100 years, the average temperature increase in Russia has been one and a half to two times higher than global warming in the whole Earth," the Antistichia Center's forecast for 2013 says.

The document notes that in the 21st century, the bulk of Russia's territory "will be in an area of ​​more significant warming compared to global warming." "At the same time, warming will significantly depend on the time of year and the region, especially Siberia and the subarctic regions," the forecast says.

In recent years, the number of natural hazards and major man-made disasters has been steadily growing. Emergency risks arising in the process of global climate change and economic activity pose a significant threat to the population and economic facilities of the country.

According to the Ministry of Emergency Situations, more than 90 million Russians, or 60% of the country's population, live in the zones of possible impact of damaging factors in case of accidents at critically important and potentially dangerous facilities. Annual economic damage (direct and indirect) from emergency situations of various nature can reach 1.5-2% of gross domestic product - from 675 to 900 billion rubles.

Climate warming leads to more snow in Siberia

Global climate change is leading to the growth of snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere and in Siberia, Vladimir Kotlyakov, director of the Institute of Geography of the Russian Academy of Sciences, said Thursday, speaking at the World Snow Forum.

"A paradox arises - with warming, which is now typical, there is more snow on the Earth. This happens in large expanses of Siberia, where there is more snow than it was one or two decades ago," said Kotlyakov, honorary president of the Russian Geographical Society.

According to the geographer, scientists have been observing the trend of growing snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere since the 1960s, when satellite observations of the spread of snow cover began.

“Now is the era of global warming, and as the air temperature increases, the moisture content of air masses also increases, therefore, in cold areas, the amount of snowfall increases. This indicates a great sensitivity of the snow cover to any changes in the composition of the atmosphere and its circulation, and this must be remembered when assessment of any anthropogenic impacts on the environment," the scientist explained.

In general, there is much more snow in the Northern Hemisphere than in the Southern Hemisphere, where the ocean prevents its distribution. So, in February, 19% of the globe is covered with snow, while 31% of the area of ​​the Northern Hemisphere and 7.5% of the area of ​​the Southern Hemisphere.
"In August, snow covers only 9% of the entire globe. In the Northern Hemisphere, the snow cover changes more than seven times during the year, and in the Southern - less than twice," Kotlyakov added.

According to the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), in December 2012, the total snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere was the largest in more than 130 years of observations - it exceeded the average by almost 3 million square kilometers and 200 thousand square kilometers surpassed the 1985 record. On average, according to American meteorologists, the area of ​​snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere in winter has grown at a rate of about 0.1% per decade.

European Russia will not receive bonuses from warming, the scientist said

Calculations of global warming processes in the 21st century on the East European Plain and in Western Siberia show that climate change will not have any positive environmental and economic consequences for these regions, said Alexander Kislov, head of the Department of Meteorology and Climatology of the Faculty of Geography of Moscow State University, speaking at an international conference "Problems of adaptation to climate change".

Kislov, Dean of the Faculty of Geography of Moscow State University Nikolai Kasimov and their colleagues analyzed the geographic, environmental and economic consequences of global warming in the East European Plain and Western Siberia in the 21st century using the CMIP3 model.

In particular, changes in river flow, the state of permafrost, the distribution of vegetation cover, and the characteristics of the incidence of malaria in the population were considered. In addition, it was studied how the volumes of hydropower and agro-climatic resources react to climatic processes, how the duration of the heating period changes.

"Climate change almost nowhere leads to positive results in terms of ecology and economy (except for lower heating costs), at least in the short term. Significant deterioration of hydrological resources is expected in the southern part of the East European Plain," the scientists conclude.

At the same time, the consequences of climate change are much more pronounced in the East European Plain than in Western Siberia.

"The response of individual regions to global changes is very different ... each region is dominated by its own natural and ecological process caused by climate change, for example, the thawing of permafrost or desertification processes," Kislov concluded.

The International Conference "Problems of Adaptation to Climate Change" (PAIK-2011) is held on behalf of the Government of the Russian Federation by Roshydromet with the participation of other departments, the Russian Academy of Sciences, business and public organizations with the support of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, UNESCO, the World bank and other international institutions.

The meeting, the organizing committee of which is headed by the head of Roshydromet Alexander Frolov, is attended by the head of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Rajendra Pachauri, Special Representative of the UN Secretary General for Disaster Risk Reduction Margareta Wahlstrem, WMO Secretary General Mishesh Jarraud, representatives of the World Bank, UNEP, Russian and foreign climatologists and meteorologists , politicians, officials, economists and businessmen.

The duration of the fire hazard period in the Russian Federation will increase by 40% by 2015

The Ministry of Emergency Situations of the Russian Federation predicts an increase in the duration of the fire hazard period in central Russia by 40%, that is, by almost two months, until 2015 due to global climate change.

"The duration of the fire season in the middle latitude zone of Russia may increase by 50-60 days, that is, by 30-40%, in comparison with the existing average long-term values," Vladislav Bolov, head of the Antistihiia Center of the Ministry of Emergency Situations, told RIA Novosti on Friday.

According to him, this will significantly increase the threats and risks of large-scale emergencies associated with wildfires.

"The duration of the fire hazard situation will increase most significantly in the south of the Khanty-Mansiysk Autonomous Okrug, in the Kurgan, Omsk, Novosibirsk, Kemerovo and Tomsk regions, Krasnoyarsk and Altai territories, as well as in Yakutia," Bolov said.

At the same time, he noted that "compared to the current values, an increase in the number of days with a fire hazard situation up to five days per season is predicted for most of the country's territory."

Last summer and part of autumn, large-scale natural fires blazed across a significant part of the country, caused by abnormal heat. In 19 subjects of the federation, 199 settlements were affected, 3.2 thousand houses burned down, 62 people died. The total damage amounted to over 12 billion rubles. This year, the fire also covered large areas, primarily the Far East and Siberia.

Forest-steppe may come to Moscow by the end of the century due to climate change

Moscow and the Moscow region 50-100 years after the end of the current "transitional" period of warming in terms of climatic conditions will be similar to the forest-steppes of the Kursk and Oryol regions with dry summers and warm winters, Pavel Toropov, a senior researcher at the Department of Meteorology and Climatology of the Faculty of Geography of Moscow State University, believes.

"After the end of the transitional climatic process that is currently taking place, the climate will return to its new warmer state, in 50-100 years the natural zones may change. Judging by the existing forecasts, the climatic conditions will be closer to the landscapes and natural conditions of the forest-steppes, which are currently observed in the Kursk and Oryol regions," Toropov said at a press conference at RIA Novosti.

According to him, Moscow and the region will not be left without snow as a result of climate warming, but hot dry summers and warmer, milder winters will be observed.

"The climate of the region will change significantly, apparently, but in the next 50 years we will not remain without snow and will not start growing apricots and peaches," Toropov added.

Russia may lose up to 20% of grain annually due to climate change

Russia may lose up to 20% of its grain harvest annually in the next five to ten years due to global climate change on the planet and the increase in aridity in the southern regions of the Union State of the Russian Federation and Belarus, according to an assessment report on the consequences of climate change for the Union State, published on the Roshydromet website. .

The report "On strategic assessments of the consequences of climate change in the next 10-20 years for the natural environment and economy of the Union State" was considered at a meeting of the Council of Ministers of the Union State on October 28, 2009.

According to Rosstat, as of December 1, 2009, grain harvest in all categories of farms amounted to 102.7 million tons in bunker weight. This corresponds to 95.7 million tonnes in post-refinery weight, with an average value of unused grain waste of 6.8% in 2004-2008.

The report says that the most important negative feature of the expected climate change is the increase in aridity in the southern regions of the Union State that accompanies the warming process.

"The expected increase in aridity of the climate may lead to a decrease in yields in the main grain-producing regions of Russia (potential annual losses in the volume of grain harvest, while maintaining the existing system of land cultivation and the applied breeding species, can reach up to 15-20% in the next five to ten years gross grain harvest), but will not, apparently, have a significant negative impact on agriculture in a sufficiently moistened Non-Chernozem zone," the report says.

According to the report, in Belarus and a number of regions of the European territory of the Russian Federation, the conditions for the growth and formation of the crop of medium and late varieties of potatoes, flax, vegetables (cabbage), and the second mowing of grasses will worsen.

In order to use additional heat resources, the document proposes to increase the share of more heat-loving and drought-resistant crops, expand stubble (crop) crops and irrigation work, and introduce drip irrigation systems.

The border of permafrost in the Arctic has receded up to 80 km due to warming

The border of permafrost in the Arctic regions of Russia over the past decades has receded due to global warming to 80 kilometers, which has intensified the processes of soil degradation, the Ministry of Emergency Situations of the Russian Federation reports on Tuesday.

The total area of ​​permafrost regions in Russia is about 10.7 million square kilometers or about 63% of the country's territory. More than 70% of proven oil reserves, about 93% of natural gas, significant coal deposits are concentrated here, and an extensive infrastructure of fuel and energy complex facilities has also been created.

"The southern border of the VM over the past few decades has shifted to a distance of 40 to 80 kilometers ... Degradation processes (of the soil) have intensified - seasonal thawing areas (taliks) and thermokarst phenomena have appeared," the forecast of the emergency situation on the territory of the Russian Federation for 2012 says. prepared by the Ministry of Emergency Situations of Russia.

The agency also records changes in the temperature regimes of the upper layer of permafrost over the past 40 years.

"Observational data demonstrate an almost universal increase, since 1970, in the average annual temperature of the upper layer of the VM. In the north of the European territory of Russia, it amounted to 1.2-2.4 degrees, in the north of Western Siberia - 1, Eastern Siberia - 1.3, Central Yakutia - 1.5 degrees," the document says.

At the same time, the Ministry of Emergency Situations notes the impact of permafrost degradation on the stability of various structures, primarily residential buildings, industrial facilities and pipelines, as well as roads and railways, runways and power lines.

"This was one of the main prerequisites for the fact that the number of accidents and various damages to the above objects has significantly increased in the territory of the VM in recent years," the forecast says.

According to the Ministry of Emergency Situations of the Russian Federation, about 250 structures in the Norilsk industrial complex alone have received significant deformations, almost 40 residential buildings have been demolished or are scheduled for demolition.

It's no secret that the climate of our planet is changing, and recently it has been happening very quickly. Snow falls in Africa, and incredible heat is observed in our latitudes in summer. Many different theories have already been put forward about the causes and likely consequences of such a change. Some talk about the coming apocalypse, while others convince that there is nothing wrong with that. True, Ru tried to figure out what the causes of climate change are, who is to blame and what to do.

It's all because of the melting of the Arctic ice...

The Arctic ice that covers the Arctic Ocean did not allow the inhabitants of temperate latitudes to freeze in winter. "The reduction in Arctic ice extent is directly related to heavy winter snowfall in temperate latitudes and extreme heat in summer," said Stephen Vavrus, senior fellow at the Nelson Institute for Environmental Research.

The scientist explained that the heated regions above the regions in temperate latitudes and the cold Arctic air created a certain difference in atmospheric pressure. Air masses moved from west to east, causing ocean currents to move and creating strong winds. "Now the Arctic is moving into a new state," says scientist David Titley, who worked for the US Navy. He noted that the process of ice melting is very fast, and by 2020 the Arctic will be completely free of ice in summer.

Recall that the Antarctic and the Arctic work like huge air conditioners: any weather anomalies quickly moved and were destroyed by winds and currents. Recently, due to the melting of ice, the air temperature in the polar regions has been rising, so the natural mechanism of "mixing" the weather stops. As a result, weather anomalies (heat, snowfalls, frosts or showers) “get stuck” in one area much longer than before.

Global warming on earth

UN specialists predict disasters for our planet in the near future due to global warming. Today, everyone has already begun to get used to the crazy tricks of the weather, realizing that something utterly going on with the climate. The main threat is the industrial activity of man, since a lot of carbon dioxide is emitted into the atmosphere. According to the theories of some experts, this delays the thermal radiation of the Earth, leads to overheating, resembling the greenhouse effect.

Over the past 200 years, the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere has increased by a third, and the average temperature on the planet has risen by 0.6 degrees. Temperatures in the northern hemisphere of the planet rose more in a century than in the previous thousand years. If the same rates of industrial growth continue on Earth, then by the end of this century, global climate change threatens humanity - the temperature will rise by 2-6 degrees, and the oceans will rise by 1.6 meters.

To prevent this from happening, the Kyoto Protocol was developed, the main goal of which is to limit carbon dioxide emissions into the atmosphere. It should be noted that warming in itself is not so dangerous. The climate that was 50 centuries BC will return to us. Our civilization in those comfortable conditions developed normally. Not warming is dangerous, but its suddenness. Climate change is happening so fast that it leaves no time for humanity to adapt to these new conditions.

The people of Africa and Asia, which, moreover, are now experiencing a demographic boom, will suffer the most from climate change. As noted by Robert Watson, head of the UN panel of experts, warming will adversely affect agriculture, there will be terrible droughts, which will cause a lack of drinking water and various epidemics. In addition, abrupt climate change leads to the formation of destructive typhoons, which have become more frequent in recent years.

Consequences of global warming

The consequences can be truly catastrophic. Deserts will expand, floods and storms will become more frequent, fever and malaria will spread. Yields will drop significantly in Asia and Africa, but they will rise in Southeast Asia. Floods will become more frequent in Europe, Holland and Venice will go into the depths of the sea. New Zealand and Australia will be thirsty, and the east coast of the United States will be in a zone of destructive storms, there will be coastal erosion. Ice drift in the Northern Hemisphere will start two weeks earlier. The ice cover of the Arctic will be reduced by about 15 percent. In Antarctica, the ice will recede by 7-9 degrees. Tropical ice will also melt in the mountains of South America, Africa and Tibet. Migratory birds will spend more time in the north.

What should Russia expect from climate change?

Russia, according to some scientists, will suffer from global warming 2-2.5 times more than the rest of the planet. This is due to the fact that the Russian Federation is buried in snow. White reflects the sun, and black - on the contrary, attracts. Widespread snowmelt will change the reflectivity and cause additional warming of the land. As a result, wheat will be grown in Arkhangelsk, and watermelons in St. Petersburg. Global warming could also deal a severe blow to the Russian economy, as the permafrost begins to melt under the cities of the Far North, where the pipelines that support our economy are located.

What to do?

Now the problem of controlling carbon dioxide emissions into the atmosphere is being solved with the help of the quota system provided for by the Kyoto Protocol. Within the framework of this system, governments of various countries set limits for energy and other enterprises on emissions of substances that pollute the atmosphere. First of all, it concerns carbon dioxide. These permits can be freely bought and sold. For example, a certain industrial enterprise has reduced the volume of emissions, as a result of which they have an "surplus" of the quota.

These surpluses they sell to other enterprises, which are cheaper to buy them than to take real measures to reduce emissions. Dishonest businessmen earn good money on this. This approach does little to improve the situation with climate change. Therefore, some experts have proposed introducing a direct tax on carbon dioxide emissions.

However, this decision was never made. Many agree that quotas or taxes are ineffective. There is a need to encourage a shift from fossil fuels to innovative energy technologies that add little or no increase in greenhouse gases to the atmosphere. Two economists from McGill University,

Christopher Green and Isabelle Galyana recently presented a project that proposed $100 billion annually in energy technology research. The money for this can be taken from the tax on carbon dioxide emissions. These funds would be enough to introduce new production technologies that would not pollute the atmosphere. According to economists, every dollar spent on scientific research will help to avoid $11. damage from climate change.

There is another way. It is difficult and expensive, but it can completely solve the problem of melting glaciers if all the countries of the Northern Hemisphere act decisively and together. Some experts propose to create a hydraulic structure in the Bering Strait capable of regulating water exchange between the Arctic,

Pacific and Atlantic oceans. In some circumstances, it should act as a dam and prevent the passage of water from the Pacific to the Arctic Ocean, and in other circumstances - as a powerful pumping station that will pump water from the Arctic Ocean to the Pacific. This maneuver artificially creates the mode of the end of the ice age. The climate is changing, every inhabitant of our Earth feels it. And it changes very quickly. Therefore, it is necessary for countries to unite and find optimal solutions to overcome this problem. After all, everyone will suffer from climate change.

Expert opinion

Russian scientists do not always agree with the forecasts and hypotheses of their Western colleagues. Pravda.Ru asked Andrey Shmakin, head of the climatology laboratory of the Institute of Geography of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Doctor of Geographical Sciences, to comment on this topic.

Only non-specialists, non-meteorologists talk about cooling here. If you read our hydrometeorological service reports, it clearly states that warming is on the way.

What awaits us all, no one knows. Now it's warming up. The consequences are very different. There are positive ones, and there are negative ones. In Russia, warming is simply more pronounced than in many other regions of the world, this is true, and the consequences can be both positive and negative. What is the effect, what are the advantages - this must be carefully considered.

Let's say a negative phenomenon is yes, the thawing of permafrost, the spread of diseases, there may be some increase in forest fires. But there are also positives. These are the reduction of the cold season, the lengthening of the agricultural season, the increase in the productivity of grasses and grass communities, and forests. Lots of different consequences. Opening of the North Sea route for navigation, lengthening of this navigation. And this is not done on the basis of some hasty statements.

How fast is climate change progressing?

This is a slow process. In any case, you can adapt to it and develop adaptation measures. This is a process on the scale of several decades, at least, and even more. It's not like tomorrow - "that's it, goons, grab your bags - the station is leaving", there is no such thing.

Do our scientists have a lot of work on this topic?

Lot. For starters, take a few years ago there was a report called "Assessment report on climate change in Russia." It was published by the Russian hydrometeorological service with the involvement of scientists from the Russian Academy of Sciences and universities. This is a serious analytical work, everything is considered there, how the climate is changing, what are the consequences for different regions of Russia.

Is there any way to slow down this process? Kyoto protocol, for example?

In the practical sense, the Kyoto Protocol brings very few results, namely those that are declared in it - to influence climate change, it is practically ineffective. Simply because the emission reductions it provides are extremely small, they have little effect on the overall global picture of these elections. It's just not efficient.

Another thing is that he paved the way for agreements in this area. It was the first agreement of its kind. If the parties then acted actively and tried to work out new agreements, this could bring some results. Now new documents have come into force instead of the Kyoto Protocol, it has expired. And they are still just as little effective in the main. Some countries have no restrictions at all, some have very small restrictions on emissions. In general, it is difficult technologically, because it is almost impossible to completely switch to such technologies in order not to produce any emissions into the atmosphere. This is a very expensive undertaking, no one will go for it. Therefore, rely only on this ...

Any other measures?

Firstly, it is not considered absolutely established that in general a person influences the climate system so much. Of course, it influences, this is undoubted, but the degree of this influence is a matter of discussion. Different scholars hold different points of view.

The measures should basically be apparently adaptive. Because even without any person, the climate is still changing according to its internal laws. It's just that humanity should be ready for climate change in different directions and taking into account the effects that this can generate.